There’s a temptation to view the upward revision to the current account balance, and the components thereof, as yet more evidence that the US external situation is in better shape than commonly perceived.
Oil shale hits a freeze
Don’t count on running your Hummer on gasoline from oil shale just yet.
More on those rising interest rates
Rising rates look scary, but I still read it as good news.
Lessons from the yield curve
The dramatic upward move of long-term interest rates gives me an opportunity to look back on some of the predictions made on the basis of the inversion of the yield curve, and what might be in store next.
Keeping China’s Yuan in Perspective
The Treasury released its report International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies yesterday. As expected, the Treasury declined to declare China a currency manipulator. On the same day, four senators submitted legislation to tie Treasury’s hands in terms of the actions it can take against countries with “misaligned” currencies.
Reconciling the BED, CES, and birth/death employment data
There has been some discussion recently about discrepancies between different government estimates of the state of the labor market. Although a legitimate issue has been raised, there has also been a bit of misunderstanding.
Musings on Inflation Worries
The selloff in the stock market last week was attributed by some to inflation worries — namely that persistent inflation means a reduction in the Fed Funds rate is less likely than the market had until recently believed.
The April Trade Release: Good and Ambiguous News
The April trade release surprised on the upside. Here are a few other insights, not all of which are unalloyed positives.
Worries about gasoline supplies
Robert Rapier has some concerns about what could be in store for the U.S. this summer.
Post Mortem on the Cambridge Energy Research Associates Forecasts
In the summer of 2005, Cambridge Energy Research Associates received a lot of publicity for their optimistic assessments of near-term oil supplies. Two years later, it’s interesting to see how the details of those predictions have been borne out so far.