Yet another one of my chief worries gets some relief from new data.
Don’t worry, be happy
Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis told us that first-quarter real GDP grew not at the anemic 1.3% annual growth rate as was originally reported in the “advance” estimate given to us at the end of April, but instead was a barely-positive 0.6% as now claimed in the “preliminary” 2007:Q1 estimates. So what’s worse than we thought?
Messages from the GDP Preliminary Release
GDP growth was revised down, as expected, in today’s NIPA preliminary GDP release. At 0.6% q/q growth SAAR was below Bloomberg consensus of 0.8%. But even more revealing is the pattern in recent revisions; in addition, trade adjustment looks a bit further off.
Economics of the Great Depression
I was honored to be included among those interviewed for East Carolina Professor Randy Parker’s new book, Economics of the Great Depression.
George Borjas thinks he understands Paris Hilton
My former colleague George Borjas has a notion that he might get more traffic for his new blog if he discusses the economics of Paris Hilton.
You think he’s right?
More on Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Adjustment
Time for an update on estimated income and price elasticities of US trade flows. These issues are important to those of us who believe that the US remains vulnerable to shifts in the rest-of-the-world’s willingness to finance the current account deficit. If you think it’s just jolly fine and likely for the US to keep on borrowing at around 6.5 percent of GDP for the indefinite future, skip this post.
Gouge this
Maybe you think you know what I’m going to say about the Federal Price Gouging
Prevention Act. So I’ll surprise you by only saying nice things about the bill.
Not dead yet
We’re still not seeing the deterioration in economic conditions that some had been expecting.
Econbrowser: The Movie
I appeared this week on our local PBS television station to talk about ethanol subsidies (one of my favorite rants). If you’re interested, you can watch a 5-minute broadcast of that interview via KPBS Full Focus.
One (Non-Isolated) Example of the Current State of Affairs in Government Administration
From GovExec.com:
Special counsel finds GSA chief violated Hatch Act
By Daniel Pulliam dpulliam@govexec.com May 23, 2007
A report from the federal agency that investigates allegations of illegal political activity in the government has concluded that Lurita Doan, the head of the General Services Administration, violated the Hatch Act.