I suggested a few weeks ago that rising crude oil prices along with seasonal demand and fuel requirements were the primary cause of this spring’s hike in U.S. gasoline prices. As Menzie noted yesterday, refining margins are clearly also now making an additional contribution. Which reminded me to look into the current status of the now decade-long effort of Arizona Clean Fuels to try to build a new refinery.
Gasoline prices surge: Thinking about Some Causes
Nominal gasoline prices are at an all time high. However, in real terms, April prices were not the highest. May prices might be, depending on how you calculate it (hard to figure it out since May’s CPI is not yet out). From the Washington Post:
Peak oil in America
The following is an article I prepared for the Peak Oil Review, which is produced by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.
Bernanke on subprime mortgages
If Bernanke isn’t worried about subprime mortgages, should you be?
New study of the effects of oil price shocks on the economy
University of Michigan Professor Lutz Kilian, whose research we’ve often highlighted here ([1], [2]), and Michigan Ph.D. candidate Paul Edelstein have an interesting new paper on how energy price changes affect the economy.
Follow up on Housing Permits and Housing Starts: Do Permits “Predict”
In an earlier post on investment, I made the assertion that housing permits led housing starts. This assertion was contested by a number of observers (GWG, rana, spencer, CalculatedRisk). I’ve decided to revisit this question, since clearly, the best characterization of the stylized facts takes on heightened importance given the yesterday’s release, as discussed by Bloomberg:
Northern Ghawar is in decline
If you end up being surprised by the big story of the next decade, you can’t say, “nobody told us.” Instead you’ll have to say, “we didn’t listen.”
Tales from the WSJ Survey of Forecasts
The results of the Wall Street Journal’s recent survey of forecasts were discussed in an article with the curious title “The Economy Is Clawing Back, but Not Much”.