In my post on the dollar’s trajectory, one person asked about purchasing power parity (PPP). Here is a brief discussion of the relevance of this concept to exchange rate forecasts.
Postscript to “Critique of Pure Dark Matter”
Mixed news for 4th quarter net income in the current account release
The politics of the deficit
Congress squawks about the horrible debt and then adds even more red ink.
Inflation concerns
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation as measured by the seasonally adjusted consumer price index for all urban consumers rose only 0.1% in February (a 1.2% annual rate), down from 0.7% (an 8.4% annual rate) in January. Those who view the monthly CPI as the most important inflation indicator breathed a sigh of relief, perceiving the economy to have lurched from hyperinflation back to price stability within the space of 30 days.
Where are the financial crises?
Some other possible consequences of monetary tightening.
ExxonMobil and peak oil
ExxonMobil is out to convince people that peak oil is in the far distant future.
Some views on the dollar’s trajectory
Judgment, theory and correlations in exchange rate modeling.
The latest employment figures: implications for policy
Stronger employment growth in February than I and many others had been expecting.
The downward march of the trade balance
Some context for the the latest trade deficit numbers
Rising long-term yields
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is up almost 40 basis points so far this year, which means it’s been gaining on the fed funds rate and reducing the prospect of full inversion of the yield curve. Why have rates been going up?