I was taking a rare vacation trip (most travel is work related for me), when my wife and I decided to enter the haunted house at Tivoli for kicks (last visit, it’d been closed to renovate the wax museum to something new). Well, it wasn’t frightening at all – but that got me thinking: What would be frightening? Here’s my answer:
“Economic Policy in a second Trump term”
S. Ren in Bloomberg: “It’s getting flatter, prompting worries over an ‘asset famine’ and a prolonged recession.”
The DWD released the May preliminary employment numbers on Thursday (h/t James):
COFER data through December 2023:
The abstract from article (free access to August 11) forthcoming in the Journal of International Money and Finance [link to ungated working paper version]:
From a just-published article in Foreign Affairs:
The CBO released an updated Economic Outlook yesterday. Projected PCE inflation is higher, as are budget deficits. First drop in Fed funds rate in 2025Q1. For me, most interesting are the GDP projections, including with respect to potential GDP.
Industrial production surprises on upside (0.9% vs. 0.3% m/m), while nominal retail sales increase modestly (0.1 actual vs. 0.3% consensus).
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
With the release of the Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, we have the following 12 month changes in employment (000’s) from different sources: