From CPI, note the CPI furniture and appliances category:
Tariffs in the Data
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Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales
Up for all three, although production essentially flat since February, and real retail sales down since March. Indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC in Figure 1:
WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%
From WSJ July survey out today:
Dispersion in GDP Nowcasts
As of today:
Policy Uncertainty *before* 30% Tariffs on EU, Mexico … and Rosie O’Donnell
Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1
Based on IMF data (COFER, IFS):
Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July
From Cleveland Fed today:
Who Ousted Hjalmar Schacht?
From (1) Reich and Prussian Minister of Economics and General Plenipotentiary (1937), and (2) President of the Reichsbank (1939) (discussion, Kopper (1998)). While it’s an inexact analogy, it’s of interest to recall it was Hermann Göring. I thought of this when I saw Russell Vought on TV today:
Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought vowed Friday to press an investigation into renovations at the Federal Reserve building, which he called a “palace” where costs are running amok.
June Alternative Indicators Down from Peak
Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, manufacturing production, real retail sales, ADP’s private NFP, and BTS freight services index. The sole exception is the Philadelphia Fed coincident index, based on labor indicators.