Based on IMF data (COFER, IFS):
Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1
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Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July
From Cleveland Fed today:
Who Ousted Hjalmar Schacht?
From (1) Reich and Prussian Minister of Economics and General Plenipotentiary (1937), and (2) President of the Reichsbank (1939) (discussion, Kopper (1998)). While it’s an inexact analogy, it’s of interest to recall it was Hermann Göring. I thought of this when I saw Russell Vought on TV today:
Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought vowed Friday to press an investigation into renovations at the Federal Reserve building, which he called a “palace” where costs are running amok.
June Alternative Indicators Down from Peak
Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, manufacturing production, real retail sales, ADP’s private NFP, and BTS freight services index. The sole exception is the Philadelphia Fed coincident index, based on labor indicators.
Effective Tariff Rates *before* Copper & Brazil
Copper, Bolsonaro (Coffee): Predict Trade Policy Uncertainty for 7/10
Here’s the data through 7/9:
GDP Impact of 87.5K Removals/Yr
From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027.
When “Liberation Day” Replaces “Infrastructure Week” Replaces “Groundhog Day” ™…
Trump on TruthSocial (Bloomberg):
“TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change”
Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty
A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words:
Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time to worry.