Part of the yield curve is already inverted.
Continue readingTime Series on Term Spreads, Yield Curve Snapshots
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A Primer on Exchange Rate Misalignment (Updated)
As the administration pushes for “stability” in the Chinese exchange rate while imposing tariffs on China, it might be useful to recount the various ways in which different observers define currency “misalignment”. Here I update a primer first posted in 2010.
Continue readingCrazy Definitions of Equilibrium Exchange Rates
“The Coalition for a Prosperous America” releases what it burbles as a “Groundbreaking CPA Study…” entitled “Quantifying Economic Growth and Job Creation from a Competitive Dollar”. Don’t be fooled by all the footnotes and the numbers. At the basis of the analysis is the aphorism: “Neither a borrower nor a lender be”.
Continue readingIndustrial and Manufacturing Production Decline: Whence the Business Cycle?
Interesting news even as we are flying partly blind (some government series are still lagging).
Continue readingWhy Isn’t Stephen Moore Still Bragging about Coal As #1?
Recall from July 2017, when Stephen Moore wrote an article entitled “When It Comes To Electric Power, Coal Is No. 1” ?
Continue readingThe Mystery of the Miniscule Term Spread
The Federal budget has just had a big hole blown in it, thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the last omnibus spending bill, the both the Fed and foreigners (including central banks) are no longer adding to their holdings of Treasurys.
Continue readingScott Walker Lies (Yet Again)
About taxes and revenues and growth. He just can’t stop lying.
Continue readingRandom Sunday Observation on the Compositional Attributes of the Econoblogosphere
The economics blogosphere, as listed in several lists of “top blogs” is remarkably monochromatic, and male.
Continue readingScott Walker Tweets on Job Creation
From twitter:
Continue readingWhat a Confidence Interval Is Not
Ever since I read the hysterically incorrect interpretation of a confidence interval from a person who purports to be a policy analyst, I’ve been looking for a succint explanation from a statistician, as a handy reference. Here it is (h/t David Giles via Mark Thoma):
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