“The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?”

This is the title of a newly released VoxEU ebook, edited by Bernard Hoekman.

The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.

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Wisconsin Downturn?

In Down, Down, Down, I noted Wisconsin’s three month downward trend in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, and as I cautioned, even this level of employment would likely be further downward revised when the QCEW data were incorporated in the next benchmark. The household survey based data released by the BLS adds yet more confirmation of a decrease in employment (h/t GeoffT). Monday’s newly released Philadelphia Fed coincident indices reflect those labor market trends.

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