The Survey of Professional Forecasters’ Q3 forecast came out today, the Wall Street Journal August survey yesterday, and the IGM/Fivethirtyeight Covid-19 panel a few days ago. Here’s an opportunity to compare and contrast perspectives – as shown in Figure 1.
(And I have seen a lot of terrible analysis) [Update 8/14/2020: the author has taken down the post, but here is an archived 8/13/2020 version of the webpage]
From CDC, Atlantic/Covid Tracking Project, and IHME:
With today’s employment situation release, here are five key indicators referenced by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee in Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0.
On July 9, 2018, over two years ago, reader CoRev wrote:
Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.
Jim discussed elements of the 2020Q2 advance release on Thursday. Here, I amplify some aspects that he mentioned.