Most accounts of inflation focus on national statistics. While the national series is still low, in some select locations, it’s even lower.
The Geographical Dispersion of U.S. Inflation
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GDP Forecasts: Administration, CBO, SPF, and ARIMA
Accompanying the release of the President’s budget (link corrected 3/5 1:20) was the Administration’s forecasts, including forecasts of GDP. These forecasts are produced by the Troika (Treasury, CEA, OMB). Some observers have asked “Is the White House’s 3.1% growth forecast still too rosy?”. Time for some comparisons.
Interpreting the Great Recession in a Classical Framework
If a collapse in aggregate demand is not at fault, then was an aggregate supply shift? A quick-and-dirty evaluation using some back-of-the-envelope calculations
The Ruble under Stress
Updated 3/4 5PM
Here are some immediate consequences of Russia’s intervention in the Ukraine. From Reuters:
A bull’s-eye for Fed accountability
I was in New York on Friday attending the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. One of the sessions was on how central banks could better communicate their plans for using unconventional monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans presented some very interesting ideas.
Birthers, (Stimulus) Deniers, and Economic Myths
OK, nothing about birthers, but some comments on truths held deeply, but unjustifiably, by certain types of people.
Guest Contribution: “The Obama Stimulus and the 5-Year Anniversary of Market Turnaround”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. He is currently a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “Are Chinese Capital controls still binding and if so, to what end?”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Yin-Wong Cheung, Professor of International Economics at City University Hong Kong, formerly professor at UCSC, and Risto Herrala, economist at the Bank of Finland.
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Use of logarithms in economics
Why do economists always want to take the natural logarithm of everything? Here’s the answer,if you don’t mind looking at a few equations and graphs.
Ex Post Historical Simulation of a Statistical Model of Anthropogenic Climate Change
…we update the [original statistical model (7)] by estimating it with data through 1998. The selected sample ends just before the recent period of slowed warming. As such, the parameter estimates do not use information about the post-1998 period. Model simulations reflect these pre-1998 parameters and post-1998 observed levels of radiative forcings, SOI, and volcanic sulphates.