If current nowcasts are accurate, we see erosion in some real wages, but not those for hospitality and leisure. And not even for aggregate if one uses the PCE deflator.
Real Wages through November
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Interpreting the Employment Release – November 2021
A couple of plots to highlight the fact that the November number on nonfarm payroll employment should be understood in the context of ongoing revisions in the data (see release here).
Business Cycle Indicators as of December 1st
Monthly GDP grows 1.5% m/m, pushed by exports. Along with current expectations for this Friday’s employment release, we have the following picture.
So You Want to Be a Monetarist!
consider the velocity of M2…
Financial Markets and Omicron and Powell
Five year inflation breakeven (unadjusted) down, 10yr-3mo term spread down, VIX and EPU up, and S&P 500 down.
Consumer Confidence, Inflation and Unemployment
There’s a lot of discussion regarding the negative impact of inflation on consumer sentiment. That’s definitely there – but unemployment also has a negative impact. And there is a (at least short run) tradeoff between the two. Relevantly, what would unemployment be in the absence of the American Recovery Plan, the CARES Act, and expansionary monetary policies of the Fed?
Guest Contribution: “Inflation is Back, But the 1970s Aren’t”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Forward Guidance Effectiveness, Now vs. Then
I’m teaching unconventional monetary policy in Financial Systems course. Here’s some interesting graphs (not altogether new), relating to forward guidance effectiveness.
Two Pictures from the Financial Markets
Usually, the Friday after Thanksgiving holiday is a quiet trading day. Today, there was lots of news to react to.
One Year Inflation Expectations
Expectations and forecasts from economists continue to diverge from consumer based expectations.