Manufacturing employment in the three states that delivered the presidency to Trump is declining, continuing the trend from last month.
June employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from over one and a half years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
From Reuters today, “Hopes for trade breakthrough fade as China cancels U.S. farm visits”:
A U.S.-China trade deal appeared elusive on Friday after Chinese officials unexpectedly canceled a visit to farms in Montana and Nebraska amid two days of ongoing talks in Washington.
Modern asset-based models are based upon fundamentals such as money stocks, incomes, interest and inflation rates mattering. But the dollar — in which safe assets like Treasurys are denominated — is special in that risk also matters.
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is a commonplace rule of thumb for defining recessions, but the original conception of recessions is not captured by this simple definition. As some people have disagreed with my description (see ), it might be useful to review how recessions are defined in the US (with associated drawbacks), and in other economies.
Best simile ever for Trumpian trade policy. From UPI: