Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Maybe. But not as of 2018M01.
Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s s.a. (green) relative to 2011M01 value, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages private employment (dark blue square) relative to 2011M01, +250K (red line). Source: BLS, author’s calculations.
One could seasonally adjust the QCEW series using a standard seasonal adjustment routine. I use X-13 (multiplicative) in EViews to generate a seasonally adjusted QCEW series. This is plotted in an analogous fashion in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s s.a. (green) relative to 2011M01 value, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages private employment, adjusted by X-13 (dark blue) relative to 2011M01, +250K (red line). Source: BLS, author’s calculations.
By this measure, which Governor Walker called the “gold standard”, employment has not exceeded the value promised for 2015M01, as late as in August 2013.
August employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this mid-December Political Calculations assertion that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the 2018Q1 state GDP figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
In the aftermath of the Salzburg summit, where the Chequers plan was dismissed by the EU, and PM May demanded “respect”, the pound has plunged.
That’s the caption to this graph:
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As Wisconsinites will recall, as late as August 2013, Governor Walker was reiterating his promise to create 250,000 new private sector jobs by the end of his first term (January 2015). As of July 2018, Wisconsin’s private sector net job creation surpassed Walker’s promised target — a full 3.5 years late.
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Note: Republican members of the Senate Judiciary Committee (from top left): Chuck Grassley, Orrin Hatch, Ben Sasse, Thom Tillis, Ted Cruz, John Cornyn; (from bottom left) Lindsey Graham, Jeff Flake, John Kennedy, Mike Crapo and Mike Lee. (Photos: U.S. Senate). Source: Yahoo.
Reuters has an interesting article, entitled “Inside China’s strategy in the soybean trade war”.
Mu Yan Kui … ticked off a six-part strategy to slash Chinese consumption and tap alternate supplies with little financial pain.
The International Affairs Fellowship (IAF) in International Economics, sponsored by Kimberly Querrey, offers business economists as well as university-based economics scholars hands-on experience in the U.S. government to expand their range of thinking and work on international economic policy. Possible host placements for the fellowship appointment include but are not limited to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Department of Commerce, the Federal Reserve Bank, and relevant parts of the U.S. Department of State and the White House [so the Fed, the IMF, the World Bank, the Treasury or any other policy institution are also possibilities]. The IAF in International Economics aims to enrich the teaching, scholarship, and research of academics, inform the practice of business economists, and expose policymakers to cutting edge scholarly research and academic debates.
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Expansionary fiscal policy combined with Taylor-rule induced monetary tightening has resulted in a strong dollar. That strong dollar is driving US agricultural prices.