Quarterly state GDP figures for the second quarter were released yesterday. Estimated Wisconsin GDP is flat relative to 2015Q4; 2016Q1 GDP was revised down by 1.7%.
Mark Thoma comments on the impact of the likely dollar appreciation:
A stronger dollar will make imports cheaper for American consumers…The U.S. economy is now strengthening and approaching full employment, but it’s not quite there yet. So I expect the stronger dollar to have some employment effects, but I don’t expect them to be substantial…
Via Twitter, yesterday afternoon:
The real return on long-term government bonds has dropped steadily over the last 30 years, falling from values around 4% to something closer to zero or even negative for many countries today. What accounts for this remarkable development, and what are the prospects for this situation to continue?
The yuan is sliding against the dollar. What about against other currencies?
Among the many promises made by President Elect Trump, one was to declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office. Besides the logistical difficulties of doing so without a Treasury Secretary in place, there are the minor difficulties of what the data indicate (I know, I know, facts seem of little import these days, but what the heck). In addition to the legally defined concerns Brad Setser has raised, I think it is useful to assess China’s currency using a commonly used measure of currency misalignment.