Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Some Time Series Data on Mass Shootings
Assault weapons ban and Trump effects.
You Can Easily Get Low Inflation If You *Really* Want To
What Did Other Term Spreads Do? And What Does the US Spread Mean for Foreign Economic Activity?
As noted in the post by Rashad Ahmad, foreign yield curve developments helped predict US growth. What did those spreads do? And, turning the question on its head, what does the US spread mean for those economies’ recession prospects?
Cross Country Core CPI Trends
Core CPI has accelerated in many countries.
Guest Contribution: “Do Foreign Yield Curves Help Predict U.S. Recessions?”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
“Surging Dollar Stirs Markets Buzz of a 1980s-Style Plaza Accord”
That’s the title of a Bloomberg article yesterday. Every few years, there’s talk about concerted action to weaken the dollar, as in 2015. There’s good reason to wish for a weaker dollar at various times — a strong dollar and high interest rates strain emerging market external balances. But would such action matter? Here’s a look at the dollar and some covariates.
Update on sanctions, oil prices, and recession
I gave an updated talk on this topic for the Better Policy Project yesterday. Slides available at
this link, video link below.
China GDP Forecast Revision
Even under optimistic assumptions, growth is going to miss the government’s target.
Five Years of S&P 500 Daily Changes
(log first differences):