The Kauffman Foundation has just released its report on startup activity. Wisconsin comes in last place in startup density.
There is widespread belief that Abenomics has led to no increase in output in Japan. It therefore seems useful to examine the data.
So spake Donald J. Trump, September 13, 2012. Here’s what actually happened.
Figure 1: Log real value of US dollar against broad basket of currencies, 2012M09=0 (blue, left scale), and year on year CPI-all inflation, % (red, right scale). Source: Federal Reserve Board, BLS and author’s calculations.
Bryan Kelly at the University of Chicago, Hanno Lustig at Stanford and Stijn van Nieuwerburgh at NYU had an interesting paper in the June issue of American Economic Review that used option prices to measure the magnitude of the implicit U.S. government guarantee of the financial sector during 2007-2009.
Bruce Hall says changing dynamics in Kansas have meant that a simple average difference (what I’ve called a individual state fixed effect) in Kansas-US unemployment rates is misleading — or more succinctly put, “the average obfuscates the trend”. So, I allowed a time trend and a square in time trend, in a regression over the 1976-2010 period (data series start in 1976; Brownback takes power in 2011). The t-stats on both coefficients are highly significant. Here is a picture of actual Kansas-US difference and the quadratic trend.
Figure 1: Kansas-US unemployment rate difference, in %, seasonally adjusted (blue), and quadratic fit (red), and 68% prediction interval (gray). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Out of sample period shaded green. Source: BLS, NBER, author’s calculations.