Medium term inflation expectations are muted, growth expectations are recovering slightly, and perceived risk seems contained.
From an email from Tim Congdon, at the International Institute for Monetary Research (9/20):
Wells Fargo Economics analyses the extent of the current slowdown, and contemplates the impact on regional economies. Here’s the heat map:
I’m not a China expert, but 20 years ago, I had the opportunity to hear the Chinese explanation for their planned policies in Western China (Xibu Dakaifa), translated in English journalistic accounts as “Develop the West” (I was the international finance economist on the Council of Economic Advisers at the time, and the Chinese counterpart, the State Development Planning Commission, was coming to Washington to meet with us; I was tasked with overseeing elements of the meeting).
Industrial production finally rises above levels in 2020M02 (the latest NBER peak). We now have the following picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC).
From BBVA (Jinyue Dong & Le Xia) today, discussing August data: “China | Worse-than-expected growth deceleration exposed the vulnerability of its anti-virus strategy”:
From the Wisconsin Department of Revenue – September issue. The regular publication of Economic Forecast reports (latest here) and the innovation of monthly updates contrasts strongly with the near economic news blackout in the second Scott Walker administration (discussed here). DoR has also added a lot more data visualizations, here.