Using flash estimates for Euro Area HICP. US inflation m/m , q/q falling:
US and Euro Area Headline Inflation Compared
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One Year Ahead Expected Inflation
Firm expectations nudge up, but household/consumer expectations are down. Survey of Professional Forecasters forecasts as of early July, out on Friday.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Beginning August
We’re roughly a month into Q3. Here’s a view, written a week ago:
…based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of End-July – UI Initial Claims Edition
Some observers argue the rise in unemployment insurance claims signals we are in, or soon to be, in a recession (e.g., [1]). Here’s an alternative view (A follow up on “So you think we might be in a recession today” Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II, and “So you think we might be in a recession as of mid-July”.)
The CPI Level
Reader Bruce Hall writes:
July Inflation Undershoots Expectations
From today’s release:
Movement in Prediction Markets
The impact of news, in the past three hours…
Inferring Economic Activity from Gasoline Use?
If so, consider the gasoline intensity of GDP:
A Short Note on Idiotic Comments
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations for July (and Forward 2-3 Year) Drop
The NY Fed measure of inflation expectations dropped dramatically from 6.8% in June to 6.2% in July. This is a much larger drop than the Michigan series (0.1ppt).