From “Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemicin the United States, March to May 2020,” JAMA, today:
Excess Deaths, March-May 2020
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CDC Criteria Not Met (out of 4), by State
CDC has defined 4 criteria for relaxing restrictions (called “gating criteria). Only two states now meet all the criteria, a lot meet 0 or only 1 — 11 states.
Source: Goldman-Sachs, 7/1/2020.
Florida meets none; Texas meets 1, but is just teetering on slipping into none.
Declining Mobility in TX, FL
From Wells Fargo’s mobility trends report, today (for Google data thru 27th, Apple data thru 29th):
These types of data are used to infer economic activity at the regional level. Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted.
Continued Recovery in June (II)
ADP releases its figure for private nonfarm payroll. Bloomberg consensus is for BLS is for an increase.
The obvious question: will July register an increase, as restrictions are re-instituted?
Continued Recovery in June?
The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index suggests yes.
CfP: “International Capital Flows and Financial Globalisation”
From Trinity College Dublin:
CALL FOR PAPERS
IM-TCD half-day workshop on:
International Capital Flows and Financial Globalisation
Date: December 17th, 2020
Venue: Zoom
Covid-19 Pandemic in the US: The Trump-Annotated Timeline
From Invictus:
Guest Contribution: “Covid-induced precautionary saving in the US: the role of unemployment rate”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Valerio Ercolani, from the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research at the Bank of Italy. The views expressed in this note represent that of the author and not necessarily reflect those of Bank of Italy.
The Swedish Experiment, Illustrated
Reader Bruce Hall, like all too many other people, thinks Sweden is doing just great. Here’re some data pertaining to the performance of its neighbors.
Change in Cases, US-ex.Tri State, Texas and Florida
Guess it didn’t disappear, like a miracle.
Source: I. Rosenberg, “Global Economics Comment: Tracking Coronavirus,” Goldman Sachs, 27 June 2020.