CBO above market?
Treasury Yield Forecasts and Projections: CBO vs. Economists’ Consensus
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Structures Investment Booms (esp. in Manufacturing)
From the advance release:
GDP, GDO, GDP+
GDP is only one measure of income. Following up on Jim’s post on GDP (and housing), here are others.
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption spending surprises on the upside. Here’s a picture of the series the NBER BCDC follows, along with monthly GDP.
Still chugging along
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, not far from the historical average of 3.1%.
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CBO Projection Defers the Downturn
CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook Update is just released:
A Search for a Phillips Curve in China
I wondered whether Chinese inflation behavior was anomalous. Answering that question depends critically on (1) what model you believe in, (2) what you believe the model parameters are, (3) what you think the input values are, and (4) whether you think the model has been stable over time. Here’s one answer.
GDP, GDI, GDO, GDP+
Guest Contribution: “Isn’t this what a soft landing would look like?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Growth Prospects: July WSJ Survey
The slowdown keeps on being moved back — according to consensus — to Q4. Mean forecast is for only one quarter of negative growth, but median has two (Q3, Q4).