Using Gov. Walker’s Gold Standard QCEW, Has 250K Jobs Been Added?

Maybe. But not as of 2018M01.


Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s s.a. (green) relative to 2011M01 value, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages private employment (dark blue square) relative to 2011M01, +250K (red line). Source: BLS, author’s calculations.

One could seasonally adjust the QCEW series using a standard seasonal adjustment routine. I use X-13 (multiplicative) in EViews to generate a seasonally adjusted QCEW series. This is plotted in an analogous fashion in Figure 2.


Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, 000’s s.a. (green) relative to 2011M01 value, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages private employment, adjusted by X-13 (dark blue) relative to 2011M01, +250K (red line). Source: BLS, author’s calculations.

By this measure, which Governor Walker called the “gold standard”, employment has not exceeded the value promised for 2015M01, as late as in August 2013.

Is California in Recession? (Part IX)

August employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this mid-December Political Calculations assertion that California was in recession.

Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]

The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the 2018Q1 state GDP figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.

Continue reading

Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship in International Economics

The International Affairs Fellowship (IAF) in International Economics, sponsored by Kimberly Querrey, offers business economists as well as university-based economics scholars hands-on experience in the U.S. government to expand their range of thinking and work on international economic policy. Possible host placements for the fellowship appointment include but are not limited to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Department of Commerce, the Federal Reserve Bank, and relevant parts of the U.S. Department of State and the White House [so the Fed, the IMF, the World Bank, the Treasury or any other policy institution are also possibilities]. The IAF in International Economics aims to enrich the teaching, scholarship, and research of academics, inform the practice of business economists, and expose policymakers to cutting edge scholarly research and academic debates.

For more information, see here.