I was interviewed for an NPR piece run today:
For those who put weight on data, see these graphs.
Wisconsin’s outlook has deteriorated recently [post]
Figure 1: Log coincident index for Wisconsin, from March release (blue), April (red), and May (green), and associated implied forecasted levels. All normalized to 2014M01=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed coincident, leading, and author’s calculations.
The already lackluster BLS (establishment) employment figures for Wisconsin are likely to be revised down [post]
Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and predicted (red). Light blue shading denotes data used for regression. Source: DWD and author’s calculations.
Real output measures demonstrate Wisconsin growth lags, despite having a high ALEC economic outlook ranking [post]
Figure 3: Log Gross State Product for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), Kansas (green), California (teal), and United States (black), all normalized to 2010=0. 2014 figures are advance. Numbers in [square brackets] are ALEC-Laffer rankings from Rich States, Poor States, 2014. Vertical dashed line at beginning of Brown, Brownback, Dayton and Walker administrations. Source: BEA, ALEC RSPS 2014, and author’s calculations.
Wisconsin ranks dead last for start-ups, despite Governor Walker’s goal of creating thousands of new companies [post]
Wisconsin’s economic performance since 2011M01 deviates — with statistical significance — from the historical norm, established using a model incorporating long run slower growth of the Wisconsin economy relative to the US economy [post]
Figure 4: Coincident index for Wisconsin (blue), forecast (red), and 90% confidence band (gray). For forecast, see text. Source: Philadelphia Fed and author’s calculations.
Bonus: It’s not just nonfarm payroll employment. Civilian employment also declines [post]