The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter. That is below the historical average growth of 3.1% and also below some analysts’ expectations for the Q1 numbers. The new BEA report also revised down the estimate of the Q4 annual growth rate. The latter was originally reported to have been 1.4% but is now estimated to have only been 0.5%.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That is a bit below the historical average growth of 3.1% and also below some analysts’ expectations for the Q4 numbers.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter. That is somewhat higher than both the historical average growth and the value anticipated by many forecasters.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in the second quarter. I have some concerns, but it looks better than many economists had been anticipating.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. One can make excuses for the number, but I’m not feeling optimistic.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s a little below the historical average rate of 3.1% since World War II, but about equal to the average 2.4% rate since 2009:Q3.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the long-run historical average of 3.1%. With inflation coming down, I think we now can declare that the Fed has achieved the admirable but difficult objective of a “soft landing” — bringing inflation down without tipping the U.S. into recession.
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I’m still trying to learn how to use ChatGPT to improve my productivity. One thing I’ve been experimenting with recently is to ask it to check my math. As it turns out, I’m still better at math than the algorithm. Here is a link to a recent discussion I had with ChatGPT. My entries are the short strongly indented statements. In this little conversation, ChatGPT made six separate math errors. Each time it confidently asserted something to be true when in fact it was provably false, and each time it would cheerfully admit its error when I pointed it out.
My recommendation is to keep ChatGPT on a short leash. Don’t ask it anything you can’t directly confirm yourself.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s close to the long-run historical average of 3.1%, and continues what has now become a fairly impressive record of an economy that continues to chug along despite constant predictions of its imminent demise.
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.6% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s a little lower than many analysts expected. But the year-over-year growth is still on track.
Top panel: quarterly real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2024:Q1, with the historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of real GDP from the previous quarter. Bottom panel: year-over-year growth rate. Calculated as 100 times the difference in the natural log of real GDP from the same quarter of the previous year.