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Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Fed hasn’t stopped GDP from growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That makes two quarters in a row with values close to the historical average, a welcome relief from the modestly negative growth rates with which we started last year.
Not a recession … yet
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the historical average (3.1%), and is a welcome sequel to the two quarters of falling GDP with which we started the year.
When is a Recession not a Recession?
Today we are pleased to host a guest contribution written by Jan P.A.M. Jacobs of the University of Groningen, Samad Sarferaz and Jan-Egbert Sturm of the Swiss Economic Institute, and Simon van Norden of HEC Montreal.
Is this a recession?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.9% annual rate in the first quarter. That makes two quarters in a row of falling real GDP, which is one rule of thumb for declaring the economy to be in a recession. The current economic weakness could certainly develop into a recession. But the evidence isn’t convincing that a recession is already under way.
Miscalculating potential GDP
How did the Fed get this so wrong?
Update on sanctions, oil prices, and recession
I gave an updated talk on this topic for the Better Policy Project yesterday. Slides available at
this link, video link below.
Why did U.S. real GDP fall?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter. What does this portend?
What can I do to help Ukraine?
I asked this question to my friend and prominent academic economist Yuriy Gorodnichenko. Here were his answers for three of the places to which he’s been making financial contributions: