Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.”
Could this article explain why at 1:30 AM CST as I awaited data on the Russian Central Bank’s interest rate decision… nothing happened?
Guest Contribution: “Trump threatens tariffs against a BRICs chimera”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Business Cycle Indicators for November 2024
Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate.
Betting on Shutdown: Thanks, Trump!
From Kalshi, 7pm CT today:
FT-Booth December Survey of Macroeconomists
2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts.
Canada and Recession
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (e.g., here today). And Trump’s threats of tariffs — even if they don’t come through — could impart enough uncertainty to throw the country into recession.
How Competitive Is China?
This probably seems like a silly question, but it’s actually a hard one to answer quantitatively.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-December
Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
If You Thought Construction Costs Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Average hourly wages in construction, production and nonsupervisory workers, in 2023$ (CPI deflated):
If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait for Mass Deportation
Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.