With industrial production coming in, we have the following picture of some key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. Also included is GDPNow as of today.
Term Spread Inversion and Non-Inversions
The 10yr-3mo term spread is remarkably synchronized for some large advanced economies.
US-Euro Area Price Level and Inflation Differentials: I(0), I(1), Segmented Trends?
Do you calculate inflation differentials using … inflation or price levels? Follow up on this debate from a bit over a year ago.
The Labor Market – Bargaining Power, Wages, Inflation
From WPR yesterday, UW Madison experts:
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
May 2023 Inflation: Various Measures, Horizons
Headline m/m +0.1% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, core at +0.4% at consensus. Here are several measures on a month to month basis (annualized).
FT-Booth School June Survey of Macroeconomists: Recession Start in 2024
2023 q4/q4 growth relatively unchanged. Modal guess for recession start date moved to 2024Q1-Q2 (survey results here; FT article).
Almost Three Quarters of a Century of the Plain Vanilla Term Spread Recession Model
If you were interested.
Plain Vanilla Term Spread Model Based Recession Probabilities
Here is a picture of recession probabilities from probit regressions on 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr term spreads, in light of Cam Harvey’s updated views.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook: Downturn Delayed (but Not Erased)
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s Economic Outlook May forecast came out yesterday. As the US outlook (from S&P Global Market Insights, formerly Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS Markit) has improved, so too has that of Wisconsin.