Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Financial Deregulation: Thanks, Trump

On banking regulation, from Forbes:

Thanks to Trump and his supporters this [Dodd-Frank capital and liquidity measures] all changed. Some of the key changes that EGRRCPA made were:

  • Increasing the asset threshold for “systemically important financial institutions” or, “SIFIs,” from $50 billion to $250 billion.
  • Immediately exempting bank holding companies with less than $100 billion in assets from enhanced prudential standards imposed on SIFIs under Section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Act (including but not limited to resolution planning and enhanced liquidity and risk management requirements)
  • Exempting bank holding companies with between $100 billion and $250 billion in assets from the enhanced prudential standards.
  • Limiting stress testing conducted by the Federal Reserve to banks and bank holding companies with $100 billion or more in assets.

 

 

Looking Backward to the “Recession of 2022H1” and Forward to the Recession of 2023

Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions? You should’ve stopped after looking at this Econbrowser post from January 4th, but I thought an update to most recent data would be of interest as we obtain December data. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus heavy truck sales (suggested by Calculated Risk at some points), and the eponymous Sahm Rule (real time version).

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Wisconsin Economic Outlook, Benchmark Revised Wisconsin Employment and GDP

The February Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast was just released yesterday. So too were January 2023 estimates for Wisconsin employment (incorporating annual benchmark revisions). How does the outlook look, given the data revisions? Pretty good in the short term. Over the next year – reflecting the forecast for the Nation – not as nice, with employment projected to decline modestly.

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