BOFIT also notes the ruble’s weakening. Here’s a picture of the CA through June.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “The drivers of market-based inflation expectations in the euro area and in the US”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Christian Hoynck [1] and Luca Rossi of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy.
Guest Contribution: “The crypto cycle and US monetary policy”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Natasha Che, Alexander Copestake and Davide Furceri (all at the International Monetary Fund) and Tammaro Terracciano (IESE Business School, Barcelona). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions with which they are affiliated.
Guest Contributions: “Energy shocks and core inflation in the US and in the Euro Area: this time is different”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, Massimiliano Sfregola and Fabrizio Venditti of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy.
China Downside Surprises
And PBoC acts. Data accessed 9:30pm Central.
“source of the weakening of the ruble…is soft monetary policy.”: Putin Chief Economic Adviser
From Bloomberg:
Writing in a rare column published by state news agency Itar-Tass, President Vladimir Putin’s chief economic adviser said “the source of the weakening of the ruble and the acceleration of inflation is soft monetary policy.” Russia needs a strong ruble, and policymakers have the necessary tools to normalize the currency value in the near future, he said.
Two Graphs of Real Rates
Long term real rates predicted, and r*.
Guest Contribution: “The End of Zero Interest Rates”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Russian GDP and GDP ex-Military Spending
There has been much discussion of how Russian GDP growth exceeded some forecasts (see discussion here). While GDP measures output, it does not measure only output that contributes to necessary to welfare. It also excludes non-market mediated activities. One big change in the past year and a half is military expenditures, which is now a larger component of GDP. In Figure 1 below, I show real GDP growth y/y as reported, and real GDP growth ex-military spending as tabulated by SIPRI.
When Next You Have to Teach Mundell-Fleming
What is your answer to the question: How Close to Full Capital Mobility Are We?