Ron Paul, on ending the conflict in the Ukraine. From CounterCurrents:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Do Declining Imports Signal an Imminent Recession?
Maybe. Maybe not. Some reasons to wonder.
Trade and Financial Policy Openness in EMDE’s, 1975-2019
Working on another project, I found this interesting correlation between the IMF’s “Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions” (MATR) (Estafania-Flores, Furceri, Hannan, Ostry and Rose (2022)) and the Chinn-Ito (JDE 2006) measure of financial openness (KAOPEN).
Just Because You Provide a Link, Does Not Mean that Link Is Worth Reading
This reprint of a The worst statistical analysis I have seen this year is motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall’s tendency to provide any ol’ link as support for a given position (actually, I believe it’s the worst I’ve *ever* seen).
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One Year In: What Did Putin’s Gambit Do to Spreads, Uncertainty, and Activity?
Bluntly put, term spreads moved toward inversion, and inflation expectations adjusted for premia increased. VIX has been elevated since February 2022, and GeoPolitical Risk rose in the period right after the invasion. Growth, which had been accelerating according to weekly indicators, then decelerated. In other words, “Thanks, Putin”.
Guest Contribution: “Are Google data really useful for macroeconomic nowcasting?”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Director of the International Institute of Forecasters).
CBO Economic Outlook: GDP, Treasury Yields, and Recession Indicators
The CBO released its Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023-33 yesterday. The projection, based on data available as of January 6, shows a shallow decline in GDP in 2023Q1 and 2023Q2.
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 2/11: Up, Up and Away, or Slow Deceleration?
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 2/11/2023 were released today.
January 2023 PPI
The core figure exceeds consensus (y/y 5.4% vs. 4.9% Bloomberg).
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-January 2023
Industrial production at consensus, while manufacturing production and retail sales above. For conjunctural analysis, industrial production is what NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee pays more attention to.