GDP is only one measure of income. Following up on Jim’s post on GDP (and housing), here are others.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption spending surprises on the upside. Here’s a picture of the series the NBER BCDC follows, along with monthly GDP.
CBO Projection Defers the Downturn
CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook Update is just released:
A Search for a Phillips Curve in China
I wondered whether Chinese inflation behavior was anomalous. Answering that question depends critically on (1) what model you believe in, (2) what you believe the model parameters are, (3) what you think the input values are, and (4) whether you think the model has been stable over time. Here’s one answer.
GDP, GDI, GDO, GDP+
Guest Contribution: “Isn’t this what a soft landing would look like?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Growth Prospects: July WSJ Survey
The slowdown keeps on being moved back — according to consensus — to Q4. Mean forecast is for only one quarter of negative growth, but median has two (Q3, Q4).
Recession: The View from Wisconsin Business
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-July 2023
Industrial production surprises on the downside (-0.5% vs. 0% Bloomberg consensus m/m), as does manufacturing (-0.3% vs. 0% m/m). Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP (SPGMI), as well as GDPNow (Q2 up by 10 bps relative to 7/10).
China Upside Surprise
Q2 GDP and June industrial production above consensus. Retail sales slightly below.