Down, from WSJ survey (as noted in article):
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Consumer Sentiment: Less “Meh”
Preliminary reading of 72.6 far exceeded Bloomberg consensus of 65.5. That’s an increase of one standard deviation (calculated for the last three years).
Guest Contribution: “Nowcasting with machine learning: two lessons from our recent paper”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Baptiste Meunier (ECB). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.
“It was the ‘meh’ of times. It was the worst of times…”
Conference Board is on the former, while the U. Michigan sides with the latter.
In Case You Hadn’t Noticed It Was Hot
Global land/sea temperature anomaly in June
PPI Inflation Down in June
Total PPI 2.4% vs 2.6% y/y Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs 0.4% core.) Signal or not for future core CPI and CPI inflation?
Q/Q Inflation in Historical Context
Transitory vs. Persistent: You decide.
Inflation at Month-on-Month: Headline, Core, Sticky, Trimmed, Mean, Instantaneous
As of June:
Inflation and Core Inflation at Various Horizons
Headline and core are both at 0.2% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus at 0.3%. Here’s picture of m/m, y/y, and instantaneous (Eeckhout 2023, T=12,a=4).
More On NFP Employment Overestimation
In a post from Sunday, I noted that NFP employment might be overestimated, but trends were generally aligned. Noting how the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data have provided different signals, Steven Englander at Standard Charter has calculated how much overstatement there might be. Continue reading