From Knorre et al. (2024):
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Where Does UkraineRussia Fit As an Independent State, Historically?
A great map, courtesy of the former President of Mongolia:
Survey of Professional Forecasters – February
From Friday’s SPF release for Q1, for GDP:
Donald Trump Proposes Violating Treaty Agreements
From CNN:
Why I Don’t Think It Was Only Demand Shocks that Drove 2022-23 Inflation
From a lecture prepared for “Macroeconomic Policy” (Spring 2024):
Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Countries [updated]
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021)
Is Germany in a Recession? And if so, would we have predicted it?
In Chinn and Ferrara (2024), we find substantial explanatory power for the 10yr-3mo, the 3 month rate, and the debt service ratio for German recessions (our analysis we also covered Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and UK). Our sample extended up to 2022M12 (using spreads up to 2021M12), as we were unsure about recession in 2023. With Germany in a possible slowdown, it’s of interest to consider what our model would have predicted.
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rules, and Futures Markets”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Deflation in China (Headline), Disinflation in Core Inflation
Stats reported yesterday:
Forecasts and Nowcasts
CBO has released its Budget and Economic Outlook, with projections for GDP (based on data from early December). This is their GDP projection based on current law, compared to other forecasts (IMF, WSJ survey mean), and today’s GDPNow.