Maybe. From Englander/Hewin at Standard Charter (gated):
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
“We had to destroy the village in order to save it.”
I’m reminded of that statement (perhaps apocryphal) when I think of Senator Johnson’s views on Social Security. From WPR:
January Inflation
Year-on-year headline and core inflation both down, but both slightly above consensus (with headline at 6.4% vs. 6.2% Bloomberg consensus). (Month-on-month both at consensus, given rounding). Other measures provide ambiguous signals.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook and the Impact of Recent Policies
Last Thursday, I talked on WPR’s Central Time about the national economy and Wisconsin’s outlook given President Biden’s policies. I noted that the macro outlook had improved substantially since last December, as the economy proved more resilient than expected, and inflation decelerated more than anticipated. That was true nationally, as well as locally.
Forecasters Up Projections of GDP, Employment
The Survey of Professional Forecasters February survey was released on Friday. The median outlook has improved considerably since early January.
Sentiment and Misery (and Maybe Partisanship)
The University of Michigan’s February consumer sentiment index (preliminary) is out today. Here’s the picture (series inverted so down is improvement) and the “misery index”, the sum of unemployment and y/y CPI inflation.
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 2/4/2023 and Monthly GDP
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 2/4/2023, released today, compared against monthly GDP.
Debt Held by the Public as Share of GDP
From Treasury, and CBO.
Cumulative NFP Job Creation in First Four Years, by President
Just sayin’
Dispersion in Q1 Nowcasts
Here are several nowcasts of 2023Q1 GDP, placed against the January WSJ mean forecast and IMF WEO projection of 31 January.