Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 12/17, released today.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics), Joscha Beckmann (FernUniversität Hagen and Kiel Institute for the World Economy) Michele Ca’ Zorzi (ECB), and Marek Kwas (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.
“I acknowledge that it shows that the increase in multiple job holders is insufficient to account for the material part of increased jobs per the Establishment Survey”
Yet More on Adjusting the CES, Private Nonfarm Payroll
Looking at not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted private employment from CES vs. QCEW and ADP.
More on Adjusting the CES
The debate over whether the establishment survey is mismeasuring employment growth over the April-June 2022 period continues, with the Philadelphia Fed asserting the net job growth was only 10 thousand, vs. the roughly 1 million reported by BLS. The outcomes of their calculations are presented in the following figure:
More Deceleration: Weekly Economic Indicators thru 12/10/2022
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/10; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26 (not updated).
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-December
November industrial and manufacturing production both surprised on the downside — -0.2% and -0.1% vs. +0.1% and -0.1% m/m (Bloomberg). This is the resulting picture for some key variables followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Why the Increase in Multiple Job Holders Cannot Account for Most of CES-CPS Discrepancy
Reader Steven Kopits asks me to “show us the math” for why the increase in multiple job holders cannot account for the majority of the discrepancy between net job creation from 2022M03 until 2022M11. Here it is:
The Household-Establishment Surveys Job Creation Conundrum
A week and a half ago, Kevin Drum noted earlier the disjuncture between job creation as measured by the household survey (civilian employment) and establishment survey (nonfarm payroll employment). My conclusion was that the empirical evidence suggested putting most — if not all — weight on the establishment survey. Now, Torsten Slok compares the declines in response rates in the two surveys. The comparison further buttresses the case for using the establishment series.
Month-on-Month Headline, Core inflation Down
Below consensus, headline m/m at 0.1% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, and core 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Headline and core m/m annualized inflation in Figures 1 and 2, along with chained, sticky price, trimmed, and PCE.