Below consensus, headline m/m at 0.1% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, and core 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Headline and core m/m annualized inflation in Figures 1 and 2, along with chained, sticky price, trimmed, and PCE.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
“Do foreign yield curves predict US recessions and GDP growth?”
Our short answer: yes.
Some Empirical Definitions of Recession, around the World: An Incomplete List
For those who don’t want to use a simple two-consecutive-quarter rule (which would declare the 2001 recession a non-recession).
So You Think We Were In a Recession in 2022H1? – Last Observations for 2022
At least somebody still believes that as of a couple weeks ago.
GDP Nowcasts as of 12/10: Growth in Q4
We have Q4 nowcasts and tracking estimates as of 12/9, and implied Q4 from Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI.
Deceleration (through 12/3)!
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26.
FT-IGM December Macroeconomists Survey – Fed Policy, Impending Recession (and More)
10yr-3mo Term Spread and Recession, Down Under
Here’s a picture of the 10yr-3mo term spread in Australia:
Term Spreads and Recessions, Country by Country Evidence – a Very Incomplete Review
Dr. Rosser asks what is the evidence for term spreads predicting recessions, with special reference to Japan. Here is my partial answer:
GDP Prospects
Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR: