From a lecture prepared for “Macroeconomic Policy” (Spring 2024):
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Countries [updated]
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021)
Is Germany in a Recession? And if so, would we have predicted it?
In Chinn and Ferrara (2024), we find substantial explanatory power for the 10yr-3mo, the 3 month rate, and the debt service ratio for German recessions (our analysis we also covered Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and UK). Our sample extended up to 2022M12 (using spreads up to 2021M12), as we were unsure about recession in 2023. With Germany in a possible slowdown, it’s of interest to consider what our model would have predicted.
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rules, and Futures Markets”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Deflation in China (Headline), Disinflation in Core Inflation
Stats reported yesterday:
Forecasts and Nowcasts
CBO has released its Budget and Economic Outlook, with projections for GDP (based on data from early December). This is their GDP projection based on current law, compared to other forecasts (IMF, WSJ survey mean), and today’s GDPNow.
Minutes of Work per Gallon of Gasoline, January 2024: 6.2
Divide the price of gasoline by average hourly earnings of private sector production and nonsupervisory workers:
Once and For All: The “Recession” of 2022H1
Using the Sahm rule:
ZeroHedge Goes Adaptive Expectations
Imagine my surprise when I see a statement “rates are now barely positive according to all official inflation and rate data” in an article titled “Will the Fed Elect Biden?” and the accompanying graph:
Debt Projections Pre- and Post- Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (of 2017)
CBO projections of debt, normalized by GDP and potential GDP, from before December passage/signing (CBO June 2017) and after (April 2018).