If you were wondering who exactly gets the bulk of the tax cuts, here is the answer, from the Tax Policy Center:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “‘Lending money to people across the water’: The British Joint Stock Banking Acts of 1826 and 1833, and the Panic of 1837”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Geoffrey Williams, Assistant Professor at Transylvania University.
Better Care Reconciliation Act and Coverage Loss, Elevated Mortality Rates for Wisconsin
Estimated elevated mortality levels for the Senate bill is 26,500 for 2026, given the reduction of coverage by 22 million. CAP estimates by the state level indicate Wisconsin coverage of nonelderly will decrease by 394,100. This implies Wisconsin mortality levels will be up by about 475. (For context, 2015 Wisconsin total deaths was 51,251, so 475 constitutes a nearly 1% increase on 2015 deaths…)
Time to update this post to read: “Troubled Kentucky Man Goes on 50 State Killing Spree”. (Although KY excess mortality is only 279 in 2026, so fewer implied deaths than for Speaker Ryan’s AHCA.)
Why Drop the ACA?
A common talking point is that the ACA is imploding, or that it’s unpopular. It is useful to consult actual data and expert opinion when listening to such arguments.
Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017 Scored
Or, the GOP plan to eliminate the surplus population
Guest Contribution: “The Sugar Swamp”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on June 22nd in Project Syndicate.
Guest Contribution: “Time-varying Models for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Adjunct Professor of Economics, University Paris Nanterre, France). The views expressed here are those solely of the author.
Double Time to Trade War?
From Politico’s Morning Trade:
RAPID PACE OF STEEL PROBE DISCONCERTING: Some Democratic lawmakers could soon press the administration over concerns that a potential Trump decision to restrict steel imports to protect national security could be challenged at the World Trade Organization if the Commerce Department does not provide a convincing basis for any action, Morning Trade has learned.
Pangloss in Wisconsin
In search of a “supply side success” after the end of the Kansas experiment, conservative observers turn to Wisconsin. The Manhattan Institute’s Mr. Riedl declares victory:
Wisconsin’s job growth over the past six years has been extraordinarily strong.
When last we met Mr. Riedl, he was explaining why fiscal policy could have no impact on GDP because, well, because. That does not augur well for his abilities an economic analysis, and indeed we can easily poke holes into the argument that Wisconsin’s doing just great!
“The Transmission of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies across Borders”
That’s the title of a one day conference at the margins of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, organized by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) and the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the IMF, aimed at featuring research on the international transmission of macroprudential and monetary policies and to discuss policy implications from this research.