That is the title of a post by Maury Obstfeld, Chief Economist at the IMF, on the occasion of the release of the April 2016 World Economic Outlook forecasts.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
US Financial Openness under a President Trump
Mr. Trump has proposed blocking remittances of illegally earned wages to Mexico as a means of inducing Mexico to pay for a border wall. What does this imply for financial openness?
Guest Contribution: “The Bank of Japan Does Not Intervene in FX These Days”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
Data Baking?
Ironman of Political Calculations asserts that my use of Philadelphia Fed coincident indices is misleading, particularly in reference to Kansas’s performance is my attempt to overstate the poor performance of that state’s economy. He argues that one should use a comprehensive measure, like gross domestic product — so without further ado, let’s compare Kansas relative performance using both measures.
Revised Coincident Indices for the Midwest: Wisconsin at the Back of the Pack!
Again.
The Financial Regulatory Policies of Senator Sanders…Again
The ironies abound
Guest Contribution: “Stagnant incomes of white workers do not explain Trump”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
Wisconsin’s Dependence on Exports
On the eve of the primary votes in Wisconsin, where protectionists are set to make some inroads, it’s of interest to consider the state’s reliance on exports — including those to China (a target of both Senator Sanders and Mr. Trump) and Mexico [1].
What Is “Solid Economic Reasoning”?
Writing in The Nation, Robert Pollin asserts:
All of [Bernie Sanders’s] major proposals are grounded in solid economic reasoning and evidence.
US-China Trade Policies: the Nuclear — and Near-nuclear — Options
Substantial attention has been devoted to the disasterous effects of implementing a Donald Trump agenda of imposing 45% tariffs on imports of goods from China. To gain some perspective, consider the implications for prices of goods imported from China if such a tariff were imposed (and a large country assumption used, so that only half of the tariff increase manifested in increased prices).
Figure 1: Price of Chinese commodity imports, 2003M12=100, with 2016M03 values at 2016M02 values (bold blue), and a 22.5% higher price level as of 2017M02 assuming the half of incidence falls on the US (red). Light green shaded area denotes projection period. Vertical axis is logarithmic. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.
Obviously, drop the large country assumption, and the resulting price increase can be up to 45%.