To heck with facts… and the scientific method.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
A Quick Note on Different Views of Potential GDP
Reader Steven Kopits writes “potential GDP model is also a binding constraint model”, so GDP “…is subject to some sort of natural speed limit which cannot be exceeded”. This assertion is so amazingly absolutist in nature, and represents such a misunderstanding of how macroeconomists typically think of potential, that I am moved to observe that if this were so, output would never exceed potential GDP in our frameworks. Now, let’s consider the relevant depiction implied by the CBO estimates (using a production function approach [1]).
Growth Rates and Levels, Again
The Boom Forecasted
A year ago, Jeff Frieden and I forecast (along with others) in Politico Magazine a boom in output. In light of today’s third release for 2014Q3 real GDP, clocking in at 5% SAAR [1], it’s reasonable to ask, are we there yet?
Guest Contribution: “Why Are So Many Commodity Prices Down in the US… Yet Up in Europe?”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
Russia: Seems Like Old Times
As I watch the financial meltdown in Russia (and work on a chapter on financial crises), I am pervaded by a sense of déjà vu.
Guest Contribution: “Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Luis Brandão-Marques, Senior Economist, Gaston Gelos, Chief of the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, and Natalia Melgar, Economist, all at the IMF. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.
Symmetric Application of Dynamic Scoring
Republicans are keen to sacrifice CBO’s role as impartial arbiter of fiscal measures on the altar of “dynamic scoring” of tax measures.[0] But there is no economic reason for restricting this approach to only tax measures.
“Asia and Global Production Networks—Implications for Trade, Incomes and Economic Vulnerability”
That’s the title of a book edited by Benno Ferrarini (ADB) and David Hummels (Purdue).
And in Russia
Government borrowing costs are spiking.