(It is expanding as long as down is redefined as up)
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
How Competitive Is China?
Newly developed indicators suggest eroding international competitiveness.
Another Item for the Annals of Innumeracy (and PoMo Math)
In response to what I thought were straightforward renditions of the data indicating reductions in government spending, reader W.C. Varones writes: “Cutting government spending” is a real stretch.” In a (perhaps vain) attempt to convince him that indeed spending is declining, I present data from BEA and CBO (I am hoping that he hasn’t joined the Jack Welch view of government statistics gathering).
Fiscal Drag and 2013Q1 Growth
The third release of 2013Q1 GDP suggests even more tepid growth than originally thought. Government spending at all levels, state/local, and both Federal defense and nondefense, is deducting from growth (in contrast to the previous two recoveries).
“Global Spillovers and Domestic Monetary Policy”
If QE1 through QE3 and other unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures had little impact upon implementation, why did the hint of a stepback induce such large reactions in international markets?
The ECB’s OMT and the German Constitutional Court
The Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program undertaken by the ECB has been key in stabilizing sovereign yields in the euro area periphery. Helmut Siekmann and Volker Wieland have evaluated the (German) legal concerns surrounding the program, here.
Revisions in Expected Interest Rate Paths
There’s been a lot of discussion of upward movements in long term interest rates. I thought it useful to consider the revisions in expectations, over time, and in context.
IMF Article IV on the US: “deficit reduction in 2013 has been excessively rapid and ill-designed”
The IMF has just concluded its Article IV consultation with the US. The concluding statement observes:
Petition Signers Need Not Apply
Walker was for the nominee (for University of Wisconsin Board of Regents) before he was against him
Dispatches XXV: A Conjecture Regarding Lagging Employment in Wisconsin
Transvaginal probes (amended to mandated ultrasounds) and giving regressive tax cuts after slashing K-12 education expenditures probably isn’t going to draw high-technology/knowledge based workers to the state