That’s from WaPo. In 2017, the US exported 1.2 billion bushels to China: North Dakota’s orphan soybeans today are nearly 1/5 of total sales to China in 2017…
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Category Archives: commodities
Learning from History and Modeling: Chinese Trade Retaliation Choices
An interesting symposium in the 2nd Quarter 2018 issue of Choices, published by the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, deals with the impact of Chinese trade retaliation aimed against US agricultural exports.
“Trade Wars Are Good, and Easy to Win”: Soybean Edition
I am dubious. End-market year soybean stocks at record highs.
From the Front Lines of the (Soybean) Wars
Reuters has an interesting article, entitled “Inside China’s strategy in the soybean trade war”.
Mu Yan Kui … ticked off a six-part strategy to slash Chinese consumption and tap alternate supplies with little financial pain.
The Long Run Elasticity of Farm Product Prices and the US Dollar
Expansionary fiscal policy combined with Taylor-rule induced monetary tightening has resulted in a strong dollar. That strong dollar is driving US agricultural prices.
(Still) Waiting for Recovery in US Soybean Prices (Levels, Relative)
November soybean futures keep on going down. And the US-Brazil spread has proven durable.
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Farm Country Gets What It Voted For
From Yahoo Finance:
Tariffs imposed as retaliation for US tariffs worsen the US terms of trade (i.e., lower ag export prices), and a strong dollar lowers US ag prices. Rising interest rates due to the collision of monetary and fiscal policies worsens the debt service load of the ag sector, while reducing farmland prices.
Thanks, Trump!
“The United States is going to become the warehouse for global soybean supplies”
That’s a quote from Paul Burke, regional director for North Asia at the U.S. Soybean Export Council, in Time. He continues “This is the realization that we’re coming to within the trade within the last couple of weeks.”
The Trade Deficit Rises
From Goldman Sachs (Hatzius, et al.) today, interpreting today’s July trade release:
The trade deficit rose to $50.1bn in July, from a revised $45.7bn in June. Total exports fell 1.0%, as the total drop in exports ($2.1bn) was comprised primarily of declines in civilian aircraft ($1.6bn) and soybeans ($0.7bn). The decline in soybeans exports likely reflects payback following a sharp increase in June ahead of Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Total imports (+0.9%) rose, reflecting increases in both petroleum imports (+3.7%) as well as nonpetroleum imports (+0.6%).
Trumpification of USDA?
The demolishment of technocratic and research groups continues.
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