The quasi-nomination of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board has resurrected the issue of the gold standard. Jim Hamilton has repeatedly — and convincingly — critiqued the idea of a return to the classical gold standard, here, here, here, and here. But here I talk about what a gold standard for the 21st century would entail.
Category Archives: commodities
Soybean Prices on the Eve of the US-China Trade Deal
Why haven’t they risen?
Why Hasn’t the Incipient Trump-Xi Deal Shown Up in Soybean Futures?
(In honor of reader CoRev), soybean futures for May…
“[I]t’s a big IF that soybeans futures are LONG TERM predictors at all.”
AKA CoRev Memorial Post. The quote is from CoRev, and motivated a July 15 post that contained this graph:
Figure 1: Soybean futures for July 2019. Source: ino.com.
Why Haven’t Soybean Futures Recovered?
As Brad Setser noted last month, US, Brazilian and Argentine soybean prices have converged, suggesting the end of arbitrage profits.
When Will Trump Deliver on the Trade War: Soybeans
Stock market meltdown, government closure, coup d’etat at DoJ, announced exit from Syria, maybe-exit from Afghanistan, tanks on the Russia-Ukraine border, DPRK still developing nukes, and Mattis departs. But at least we’re winning the trade war, right?
Continue readingUS Gets China to Agree to What It Was Going to Do Anyway
From NYT:
In a significant concession, Mr. Trump will postpone a plan to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent, from 10 percent, on Jan. 1. The Chinese agreed to an unspecified increase in their purchases of American industrial, energy and agricultural products, which Beijing hit with retaliatory tariffs after Mr. Trump targeted everything from steel to consumer electronics.
USDA Speaks
From Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast, released yesterday.
Fiscal year (October/September) 2019 agricultural exports are projected at $141.5 billion, down $1.9 billion from fiscal year 2018 and $3.0 billion from the August 2018 forecast, largely due to decreases in soybeans and cotton. Soybean export volumes are down because of declining Chinese purchases from the United States as a result of trade tensions, and as a record U.S. crop continues to pressure soybean prices lower.
“Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies”
That’s the title of a new volume released today, edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge.
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Thankfully, “New Nafta” Has Saved Wisconsin Dairy!
Ooops. Jumped the gun. Actually Nafta 0.8 will only yield minor benefit to American dairy farmers. In the meanwhile, prices are plummeting…
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