Several key series look like they have peaked; nowcasts indicate slowing growth. Forward looking indicators look “iffy”.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (5/3 release), and author’s calculations.
That’s from Macroeconomic Advisers today. Turns out a bunch of monthly indicators have recently been released, including today’s employment report. Here are some key ones followed by NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Reader Zi Zi writes:
Higher short rate actually precedes better [US GDP] growth (not lower): GBP3M
I … don’t … think…so.
Figure 1: Libor 3 month based on British pound (dark blue, left scale), four quarter growth rate of US real GDP (red, right scale), both in %. NBER defined recession dates. Source: IBA, BEA via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Granger causality (2 lags) test fails to reject US growth rate causes Libor; rejects Libor causes US growth rate.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Enrique Martínez-García (Senior Reserach Economist and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. He acknowledges the contributions of Valerie Grossman, Michael Morris, Amro Shohoud, and Mark A. Wynne in preparing these comments.
Of the 10yr-3mo spread.
The President’s budget document included a table (S-9) including GDP forecasts (q4/q4). How much of an outlier are these forecasts? I let readers decide.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Iván Kataryniuk (Banco de España) and Jaime Martínez-Martín (European Central Bank) summarizing their chapter in the book International Macroeconomics in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis edited by L. Ferrara, I. Hernando and D. Marconi. The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of their respective institutions.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on November 26th.
Figure 1: GDP (blue), GDO (red), and GDPPlus (green), q/q SAAR growth calculated as log diferences, and GDPNow (blue square) and NY Fed Nowcast (blue open triangle). Source: BEA 2018Q2 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed (8/30),
NY Fed (8/31), and author’s calculations.
Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release, here are four observations.
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