Production, employment (production & nonsupervisory), and aggregate hours are all declining, and all down relative to recent peak.
Category Archives: employment
Memo from the Midwest: Industry and Agriculture under Trump
Well, over the past year, employment growth has been pretty lackluster in the Midwestern states that Trump was going to revive in terms of manufacturing … and in terms of agriculture…
Midwest Manufacturing Malaise, Continued
Manufacturing employment in the three states that delivered the presidency to Trump is declining, continuing the trend from last month.
Five Observations on the Employment Release
1. The deceleration in employment growth is noticeable; 2. Taken with the preliminary benchmark revision, it’s possible employment growth deceleration is even more marked; 3. With accounting for temporary census workers, m/m growth is fairly anemic; 4. Nonetheless, latest vintages of key indicators suggest only a slowdown; 5. Manufacturing employment and hours (as well as production) still below peak.
Wisconsin Civilian Labor Force Growth during the “Open for Business” Era
Remember February 2011, when Governor Walker declared this?
CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision: NFP
Down 501K in March. Private NFP down 514K.
Winning: Midwest Manufacturing Employment
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin drop, as US manufacturing employment rises.
Is California in Recession (Part XVII)
June employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from one and a half years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth in Context
Blockbuster (absolute level) growth number for nonfarm payroll employment. But does the percentage growth rate in NFP dispell the prospect of recession in the near future? I don’t think so.
Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Apply Deterministic Time Trends to Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Suppose you wanted to detect anomalies in nonfarm payroll employment (NFP). Would you want to apply a filter that relied on trend stationarity of NFP (like reader CoRev does in his “anomaly analysis”)? My short answer is “no”…