In every single state in the Great Lakes region, save Michigan, manufacturing employment has either peaked or (charitably) gone on a growth hiatus.
Category Archives: employment
Assessing the Business Cycle, Mid-May 2019
Several key series look like they have peaked; nowcasts indicate slowing growth. Forward looking indicators look “iffy”.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (5/3 release), and author’s calculations.
Data Sources, Again [Updated]
[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trends 4/16/2019] I have repeated requests for raw data used in this post, part of which is plotted in this graph. Reader CoRev writes:
…Menzie has admitted he mis-attributed his full range of sources used, and has yet to provide ALL the data he used.
This is not true. I didn’t admit mis-attribution. All I can conclude is that there is some confusion over terms.
I Spent a Couple Trillion Dollars, and All I Got Was Trend Employment Growth! [Updated]
[Updated to include CoRev’s analysis of trend 4/16/2019] Reader JBH writes:
“Employment has done marvelously well under this president.”
What Did $1.4 Billion Buy in Manufacturing Employment?
Not much…Wisconsin manufacturing employment up to February; January revised down…
NYC Minimum Wage Devastates NYC Employment in Sector X
Self-Professed Policy Analyst Predicts Minimum-Wage Induced Employment Disaster [CORRECTED]
[Graph corrected 3/18 of 3/15 post– apologies to all for the error of using NY-wide series in the earlier post] New York City. Inveterate commenter Steven Kopits cites an article from some publication called “Liberty Nation”:
Self-Professed Policy Analyst Predicts Minimum-Wage Induced Employment Disaster
In New York City. Inveterate commenter Steven Kopits cites an article from some publication called “Liberty Nation”:
Employment Growth in the Last Year of Walker’s Wisconsin
The benchmark revisions halved the 2018 growth rate from 1.64% to 0.82%.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from December 2018 release (red), from January 2019 release (blue), in 000’s, s.a. Light green shading denotes benchmarked data. Source: BLS.
Is California in Recession? (Part XV)
Back a little over a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Today’s release of the 2018Q3 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
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