Private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment slightly undershot consensus (172K vs. 179K). There’s been some discussion of how it’s likely that private nonfarm payroll growth is overstated in the CES, possibly due to distortions associated with the firm birth/death model. Here, I compare the official series against some other measures that are not susceptible to this critique.
Category Archives: employment
Private NFP in July
ADP surprises (again) on the upside (324K vs. 189K Bloomberg consensus). I’m not sure we should take too much from that development.
More On NFP Employment Overestimation
In a post from Sunday, I noted that NFP employment might be overestimated, but trends were generally aligned. Noting how the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data have provided different signals, Steven Englander at Standard Charter has calculated how much overstatement there might be. Continue reading
Alternative Readings on Private and Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment
NFP surprised on downside slightly; however, alternative measures indicate continued growth through at least May. That characterization also applies to private NFP.
June Private NFP Nowcasted, based on ADP Series
ADP private nonfarm has a blowout upside surprise of +497K vs. consensus +228K. For context, the m/m standard deviation of log first differences is 0.0028, vs. June reading of 0.0039.
Using the correlation between log first differences for BLS nonfarm payroll employment and ADP, I get the following prediction or “nowcast” for the BLS number to be released tomorrow, taken literally, a 486K employment increase (ignoring revisions to previous months):
Further Thoughts on the Labor Market Collapse of 2022H1 (aka the Kopits Thesis)
Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit:
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook: Downturn Delayed (but Not Erased)
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s Economic Outlook May forecast came out yesterday. As the US outlook (from S&P Global Market Insights, formerly Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS Markit) has improved, so too has that of Wisconsin.
The Reliability of Employment Measures from CES
Alternate measures of conceptually similar to NFP and private NFP continue to rise.
ADP Private NFP Growth Upside Surprise
ADP private nonfarm surprises on upside, 296 vs 148 thousands. Using the first differences regression in this post to nowcast BLS private NFP, what does the picture look like?
Private NFP Growth Predicted using ADP Data
Using the correlation between log first differences for BLS nonfarm payroll employment and ADP, I get the following prediction or “nowcast” for the BLS number to be released tomorrow: