Category Archives: Federal Reserve

If We Were to Implement a Gold Price Target, What Should the Fed Funds Rate Be?

Given the Senate Banking Committee’s approval of Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, it seems like a good time to see what stabilizing the price of gold in US dollars would’ve required in terms of the policy rate (akin to how the exchange rate is managed). Using the policy rate to  stabilize the dollar price of gold at February 2020 levels would required the increase of the Fed funds rate by 1.15 percentage points higher than it was at that time.  The Fed actually decreased the Fed funds rate by 1.5 percentage percentage points by June 2020.

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Worried about Surging Inflation?

Periodically, I get emails from some guy named Tim Congdon of the Institute of International Monetary Research, bewailing the tendency “to shrug off the inflation risks that have in the past arisen from too much monetary financing of large budget deficits.” So…big increases in the Fed’s balance sheet: will they collide with reduced supply over the medium run to produce inflation? TIPS say no…

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The Current Crisis: SitRep and Interpretation Lecture

I was lucky enough to get assigned to coteach a macro course (with Charles Engel) this semester. However, as time passed, it seemed strange to go through the models without referring to current events — in my half of the course, I got to teach one lecture in person, and then had to switch to remote teaching –, so here is my digression from the syllabus, talking about — among other things — why a “V” recovery is not likely, contra Larry Kudlow, Stephen Moore, et al.

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Guest Contribution: “The Role of Network Effects in the International Transmission of US Monetary Policy”

Today, we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution by Stéphane Dees (Banque de France and Univ. Bordeaux) and Alessandro Galesi (Banco de España). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banque de France, Banco de España, or the Eurosystem.


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