Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds:
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
The Employment Release, News, and Futures-Implied Fed Funds
NFP employment at 187K (vs. Bloomberg consensus 170K), while average hourly earnings y/y up 4.3% (vs. consensus 4.4%). Combined with to June figures and preliminary benchmark revision, we have a picture of a cooler labor market.
Guest Contribution: “The End of Zero Interest Rates”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Stays the Course”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Does the Fed Care about What’s Going On in the Rest of the World?
Ferrara and De Roux actually pose the question more tactfully, in their paper (Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach) presented at the ISF meetings here in Charlottesville. They look to see if in the FOMC minutes, international economic issues are mentioned in a way that, when converted to an index, shows up as statistically significant in a Taylor equation, and provide the answer “yes”.
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed is Back on the Curve”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Fed Funds Trajectory as Viewed by the Market
According to the CME, peak Fed funds will be achieved tomorrow. So… “25 and done”…
Credit Easing/Tightening/Easing/? 2007-2023
Prepping for monetary policy lecture in Monday’s lecture, here’s the Cleveland Fed’s picture of Fed assets over time.
FT-IGM March Survey – Expectations Post-SVB
Here’s the growth path according to the FT-IGM survey that closed March 16th, about a week after the unfolding of events surrounding SVB.