Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, and Fabrizio Venditti of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Approaches the End of the Rate Hiking Cycle”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Associate Instructional Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Musings on Economic Policies in a Trump Second Term
We don’t know much, but we know tax cuts and tariffs are on the agenda. I suppose that, while he might not execute the Fed Chair (that’s reserved for a select few), he is likely to try to otherwise eject him/her if policy is not to his liking.
FT-Booth September Survey
The recession’s start is further delayed as forecasted growth continues. FT article and survey results: q4/q4 growth at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range].
How Much Have (Ex Ante) Real Rates Risen?
Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds:
The Employment Release, News, and Futures-Implied Fed Funds
NFP employment at 187K (vs. Bloomberg consensus 170K), while average hourly earnings y/y up 4.3% (vs. consensus 4.4%). Combined with to June figures and preliminary benchmark revision, we have a picture of a cooler labor market.
Guest Contribution: “The End of Zero Interest Rates”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Stays the Course”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Does the Fed Care about What’s Going On in the Rest of the World?
Ferrara and De Roux actually pose the question more tactfully, in their paper (Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach) presented at the ISF meetings here in Charlottesville. They look to see if in the FOMC minutes, international economic issues are mentioned in a way that, when converted to an index, shows up as statistically significant in a Taylor equation, and provide the answer “yes”.
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.