What do households (not economists) think inflation will be in three years? I use the deviation of forecast from target as a proxy measure for credibility regarding inflation.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Over 300 Years of Central Bank Rates
An interesting picture from Jim Reid/Deutsche Bank:
Dot Plot vs. Market Expectations
For Econ 442 “Macroeconomic Policy”. A question was raised today regarding whether one could distinguish between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s, regarding the path of Fed funds rates. The short answer is yes, under certain assumptions.
More on r*
From BIS Quarterly Review, article by G. Benigno, B. Hoffmann, G. Nuno Barrau, and D. Sandri:
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rules, and Futures Markets”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Teaching Macro 2024
First time teaching undergrad macro (elective, after intermediate macro) in three years, so I thought time to revise the syllabus (Econ 442) to account for new issues (compare against Fall 2001).
History, According to Some
In commenting on this post comparing the post-Great Influenza and post-Covid period, Mr. Kopits asserts:
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI
Courtesy of CFS, here is M4 Divisia velocity (rescaled to 1967Q1=1):
News and the Market-Implied Fed Funds Path
Ten year Treasury yield fell with the FOMC announcement, as CME contracts indicated a lower trajectory:
FT-IGM (Booth School) US Macroeconomists Survey on the Outlook
Survey results are out, for responses as of 12/4. FT article here.