CEA Chair Kevin Hassett has stated a recession by next summer is impossible. I’m wary of such definitive statements.
Category Archives: financial markets
Inversion!
Of the 10yr-3mo spread.
MMT for the ADD
I’ve written up a draft set of notes for my undergraduate macro students. Here is my interpretation of Modern Monetary Theory for them. Comments welcome. [Revised version incorporating comments now available here (3/26).]
“International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing”
That’s the title of a fascinating new paper with important policy implications.
Continue reading“A Third of a Century of Currency Expectations Data: The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium”
That’s the title of a new paper, coauthored with Jeffrey Frankel, using data extending back to August 1986.
Continue readingMeasured Uncertainty and Treasury Spreads, 1/7/19
Treasury Spreads and Measured Policy Uncertainty
Do they matter?
Continue readingHappy New Year!
Figure 1: Baker Bloom and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty index, centered 7 day moving average (gray, left scale), and ten year – three month Treasury spread, % (blue, right scale) and ten year – two year spread, % (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, FRED and author’s calculations.
Perspective on the stock market
Some people are getting a little spooked by recent stock market movements. Here I offer a few thoughts.
Continue reading
US Treasury Yield Curve Website, Today…
Is it just me? I’ve tried 3 browsers and my iphone…
Continue reading