It seems to me unlikely, looking at correlations and lags, that we are indeed “rounding the corner” on the pandemic.
Category Archives: health care
Of Cumulatives and Count Biases
Reader Bruce Hall declares:
When adjusting for population, the number of new infections in Europe has now overtaken those in the United States, with Europe reporting 231 new Covid-19 cases per 1 million people, based on a seven-day average, compared with 177 new Covid-19 cases per 1 million people in the U.S. Overall, Europe, which includes 27 European Union countries and the U.K., is seeing nearly 120,000 new cases per day, Johns Hopkins data shows. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/covid-is-accelerating-across-the-globe-as-us-and-europe-head-into-flu-season.html
Fernandez-Villaverde and Jones: “Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report”
From NBER WP 28004:
Our main finding is that most countries/regions/cities fall in either of two groups:
large GDP losses and high fatality rates (New York City, Lombardy, United Kingdom,..)
or low GDP losses and low fatality rates (Germany, Norway, Kentucky, …). Only a few
exceptions, mainly California and Sweden, depart from this pattern.
Covid-19 Hospitalizations, Fatalities Trending Up
Two days ago, reader Bruce Hall wrote:
Cases continue to escalate; deaths do not; hospitalizations are basically level. The hyperbole around cases is unfortunate because infections are not categorized for action since asymptomatic to severe are lumped together.
Covid-19 Fatalities and Excess Fatalities
The most recent “excess fatality” count remains solidly in the positive region, despite the severe under-reporting bias in the most recent observations. To see this, consider the most recent estimates for each of the previous vintages of “excess fatalities” calculated as actual-expected.
Business Cycle Indicators, 16 October
With the release of industrial production figures today, the deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Covid-19: Excess Fatalities vs. Administrative Counts
In contrast to earlier weeks, the most recent “excess fatality” count is solidly in the positive region, despite the severe under-reporting bias in the most recent observations. To see this, consider the most recent estimates for each of the previous vintages of “excess fatalities” calculated as actual-expected.
Pondering Elevated Wisconsin Covid-19 Infection Rates Resulting from a Successful Judgment for Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty
Striking down Governor Evers’s mask mandate in the name of process means fatalities almost assuredly must be higher than otherwise. From AP today:
Using One’s Eyes
A reader writes, in reference to CDC Covid-19 data on fatalities and excess fatalities, and how the estimates change over time as new data come in:
Are Covid-19 Deaths Falling?
I read some claims that Covid-19 fatalities are declining. I want to — again — remind readers about the hazards of interpreting (1) administrative data, and (2) data revisions.