Compare the CDC ensemble forecast released today, as compared to that generated the previous week and discussed in this post.
Category Archives: health care
If Hospitalizations Lead Fatalities: Prospects for Florida
With large shares of populations vaccinated, case counts are no longer a good predictor of fatalities arising from Covid-19. Hospitalization might prove better (and ICU hospitalizations even better). The statistics do not augur well, particularly for Florida.
Guest Contribution: “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. The underlying econometrics are spelled out in “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting: An Econometric Analysis.” I am grateful for the excellent research assistance of Randy Kotti.
Covid-19 Forecasts, One Year Ago and Today
One year ago (7/29):
IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months
IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths:
The Delta Variant: Macro Implications
From DB, does the UK presage the US?
GDP by State, 2021Q1
BEA released figures today. From the release:
The Delta Variant and Prospects for Economic Activity
From Washington Post:
The unusually contagious delta coronavirus variant, first found in India, could become the dominant strain in the United States this summer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Rochelle Walensky said Friday.
Guest Contribution: “Statistics and the Pandemic”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
The University of California gives back to the community
About 10% of the population in San Diego have now received the vaccine. A third of these — 100,000 people– were served by a single facility operated by the University of California at San Diego. What’s the secret to their success? Answer: logistics.
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