From Bloomberg, Matthews and Shah, “High-Frequency Charts Show U.S. Economy Softening From Delta”:
Category Archives: health care
Decelerating Florida Economic Activity thru 7/31 and Covid-19 Fatalities Rising
Florida is decelerating faster than the US, according to the Baumeister et al. Weekly Economic Conditions Index (discussed in this post) just released today.
CDC Ensemble Model Ups Predicted Florida Weekly Deaths
Compare the CDC ensemble forecast released today, as compared to that generated the previous week and discussed in this post.
If Hospitalizations Lead Fatalities: Prospects for Florida
With large shares of populations vaccinated, case counts are no longer a good predictor of fatalities arising from Covid-19. Hospitalization might prove better (and ICU hospitalizations even better). The statistics do not augur well, particularly for Florida.
Guest Contribution: “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. The underlying econometrics are spelled out in “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting: An Econometric Analysis.” I am grateful for the excellent research assistance of Randy Kotti.
Covid-19 Forecasts, One Year Ago and Today
One year ago (7/29):
IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months
IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths:
The Delta Variant: Macro Implications
From DB, does the UK presage the US?
GDP by State, 2021Q1
BEA released figures today. From the release:
The Delta Variant and Prospects for Economic Activity
From Washington Post:
The unusually contagious delta coronavirus variant, first found in India, could become the dominant strain in the United States this summer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Rochelle Walensky said Friday.