A reader writes, in reference to CDC Covid-19 data on fatalities and excess fatalities, and how the estimates change over time as new data come in:
Category Archives: health care
Are Covid-19 Deaths Falling?
I read some claims that Covid-19 fatalities are declining. I want to — again — remind readers about the hazards of interpreting (1) administrative data, and (2) data revisions.
The Pandemic in Wisconsin: Projections
As of today, the Covid Tracking Project reports 7 day rolling average of 4.29 deaths/day. IHME at UW projects a fatality rate of 14.83/day by Nov 1st, while Youyang Gu‘s model (forecasting performance discussed here) projects 12/day. Both of these exceed the 7-day rolling average of 11.21 recorded April 12th (according to IHME)
For the Innumerate
If you are trying to argue that fatality counts are currently higher in NY than in CA, Fl, NJ, IL, see figure 1, below. If you are trying to argue that currently per capita fatality rates are higher in NY than in CA, Fl, NJ, IL, see figure 2. (Note Figure 1 on a log scale.) [graphs from Financial Times‘s excellent interactive website]
Are US Covid-19 Fatalities Declining? Probably
I read some triumphalist claims that Covid-19 fatalities are declining. I want to remind readers about the hazards of interpreting (1) administrative data, and (2) data revisions.
Covid-19 Fatalities, Excess Fatalities, and Conspiracies
In the latest conspiracy theory, some have argued that since only about 6% of Covid-19 fatalities state solely Covid-19 as a cause of death, pandemic fatalities are incredibly overstated. Inspection of the statistics suggest reported Covid-19 fatalities are, if anything, understating pandemic fatalities.
Covid-19 Fatality Projections
Reader Bruce Hall speculates:
It appears that the “second wave” has about peaked. Even the inflated measure of cases (versus April/May testing process) is declining. Hospitalizations for the “expendables” are declining although still the vast majority of deaths.
Maybe. The concept of local maxima/minima might be useful to keep in mind.
CDC Covid-19 Fatality Count and Excess Deaths
CDC has released data through 15 August as of today.
Mendacity Watch: Covid-19 Fatality Rate and the Swedish Success
Reader CoRev, commenting on estimates of US Covid-19 fatality numbers, writes:
There are a growing number of reports citing Sweden’s success: https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/10/new-study-finds-swedens-refusal-to-lock-down-saved-the-economy-without-sacrificing-lives/
Covid-19 Fatalities, Excess Fatalities and Likely Revisions
From CDC and the Atlantic/Covid Tracking Project.