The price of oil has doubled from its value a year ago and could increase much more if there are significant reductions in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries. This is the first in a series of two posts on what these events could mean for the U.S. economy. Today I focus on the implications for inflation, and in a follow-up post I will discuss implications for real GDP.
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Category Archives: inflation
“Though wages are rising, inflation is winning the race”
That’s the title of a NPR report.
Inflation in February
Oil prices were on the rise before the invasion, so gasoline prices were up. Headline m/m ticked up, core down. We are below peaks for month-on-month, even if you hear about 40 year highs (on year-on-year).
Recession? The Term Spread over the Past Four Recessions
Market Implied Expected Rates
Interestingly, if implied forwards are to be believed, the Fed won’t be raising rates too fast.
Russian Exchange Rate Pass Through into Consumer Prices
For Russia, it’s maybe 10%-17% for 1 quarter, 50%-70% for 4 quarters.
FT-IGM February Survey of Macroeconomists
Survey taken last week, published today here. The FT-IGM Survey of Macroeconomists median forecast implies this path for GDP:
Guest Contribution: “Fighting the Last Inflation War”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Business Cycle Indicators at End-February, January Inflation Recap
Personal income and consumption for January, and manufacturing and trade industry sales for December, were released last week. The PCE deflator for January was also released, rounding out January inflation numbers.
Unanchored or Not? (Inflation Expectations)
Paul Krugman notes research out of NY Fed (analysis here) suggesting sensitivity of household inflation expectations to current actual is lower than in the past. As a reminder, here’re household expectations (Michigan, NY Fed) vs. others (economists) at the 1 year horizon.