A recent article (N. Brophy, Appleton Post-Crescent) outlined some of the causes and implications of heightened inflation. The article lays out some of Wisconsin-specific effects. The discussion is somewhat constrained since BLS only reports limited region-specific CPI data, and none limited to Wisconsin, so the author makes some inferences linked to housing prices, energy and wage costs. Nonetheless, there are some interesting regional differences.
Category Archives: inflation
More on Market Indicators pre- & post-Manchin
Following up on the previous post on expectations responses from the market to Manchin, Just putting together all the pieces of betting odds on the size of the reconciliation package, and the impact on implied expected inflation, real rates, and future economic activity. I plot on a 7 day frequency so as to include the odds from PredictIt, which do not stay constant over the weekend.
Five Year Expected Inflation Now, Five Years from Now
From the markets:
The Ports Tie-Up, Illustrated
From Natixis:
A Backgrounder on the Current Inflation Episode
Some CPI Component Movements and Their Implications
Dean Baker has an interesting article conjecturing about future declines in the CPI, being driven by gasoline, cars, and food. The argument seems plausible, depending on what happens in the supply chains and the oil markets. I want to consider what might happen, depending on other components.
Inflation Expectations
Before and after the November CPI release.
CPI Inflation in November
Month-on-month down, even if up year-on-year. Trimmed and sticky price inflation (m/m) are also down.
Longer Term Inflationary Implications of the Build Back Better Act
Real Wages through November
If current nowcasts are accurate, we see erosion in some real wages, but not even those for hospitality and leisure. That’s not true for total private NFP using the PCE deflator. [italics denote correction 12/5]