With August data:
Category Archives: inflation
The Low Consumer Sentiment/Confidence Puzzle Resolved?
In the past few years, a persistently low level of consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, Conference Board, or Gallup surveys, relative to conventional economic measures has puzzled analysts, including this one [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. This puzzle is illustrated by the evolution of the U. Michigan series (FRED series UMCSENT), and the fitted values using 2011M01-2024M08 data on unemployment and year-on-year inflation.
Change in Fed Funds vs. Where the Fed Funds Should Be
At the press conference for today’s FOMC meeting, there was a lot of talk about how the 50bps drop was dramatic. That focused on the change, rather than the level…Consider what some measures of the Taylor rule (which refers to the level of the Fed funds rate) indicate.
Instantaneous Headline Inflation: CPI, PCE, HICP
With US HICP out today:
Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) the World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”
From the article (published 9/10), two key graphs:
FT-Booth Survey of Macroeconomists: Whose Platform Is More Inflationary/Deficit Expanding?
From the September survey, as shown in yesterday’s FT:
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up, Inflation Expectations Down
Scary Movie: Pseudo-Economics Edition
EJ Antoni/Heritage presents this picture which should scare the beejeebus out of us.
Nationwide Grocery Prices at 2024M01 Levels
From the CPI release:
Instantaneous Core Inflation, with PPI and Nowcasted PCE Deflator
With the PPI release, and Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast as of today: