Growth prospects in short term are being revised up. But how long can that persist when policy rates rise, oil prices stay low?
Category Archives: international
Erasmus University: “The 25th anniversary ECB Symposium”
Taking place on January 16th in Rotterdam, this is the second part of the symposium at the Erasmus School of Economics & Rotterdam School of Management on this topic, organized by Mary Pieterse-Bloem and Sylvester Eijffinger. The first part took place last July.
FX Turnover through 2022
Doing some research on international currencies, I reviewed FX turnover data from the BIS, through April 2022. Dollar dominated, two months after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“Russia’s Economy is Falling Behind”
From Treasury’s assessment of the prospects for the Russian economy.
“Should Argentina Dollarize?”
An AEI and OMFIF discussion on Wednesday with Steve Kamin and Mark Sobel.
Senator Théoden* on Funding Ukraine
From The Hill:
“The only way this war ends is in a negotiated settlement. Every day that goes by while this war continues, more Ukrainians die, citizens and soldiers, more Russian conscripts die. I take no joy in that. More of Ukraine gets destroyed,” [Senator Ron] Johnson said. “So, the sooner that they reach a negotiated settlement, the better from my standpoint.”
Johnson said he thinks Russia will not lose the war against its neighbor to the southeast. The Wisconsin senator said he doesn’t “like that reality, but it’s true.”
In essence, because the Russian forces are so strong and effective (despite evidence accumulated over the past year and a half to the contrary), then we had best give up, and negotiate now, the sooner the better.
In this Foxnews clip from yesterday, Senator Johnson also talks about how a negotiated surrender would be one favorable to the Ukrainians because Putin would be afraid of a protracted guerrilla war.
More generally, Mr. Johnson wants more for border security in any agreement for funding Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
* Théoden Reference is to reign during period of Grima’s tenure as security adviser.
Chinn-Ito Measure of Financial Openness in 2021
Just published, Chinn-Ito index, available here. Normalized to [0,1], with 1 being most open, here’s the world.
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Forecast for Oil, and the Impact of Sanctions
As reported yesterday:
Guest Contribution: “Exchange Rate Elasticities and Product Sophistication”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Inflation: Known Unknowns
In my MJS article on inflation, I wrote: