From intro to the WEO:
Category Archives: international
When Next You Have to Teach Mundell-Fleming
What is your answer to the question: How Close to Full Capital Mobility Are We?
Chinese Growth in Question (Again) [Updated]
Update to this post. Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?
Two Quarters of Negative GDP Growth Do Not (Necessarily) a Recession Make, Part MMXXVI
From CEPR-EABCN’s Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (June 30 meeting), “Not Every Downturn Is a Recession”
Does the Fed Care about What’s Going On in the Rest of the World?
Ferrara and De Roux actually pose the question more tactfully, in their paper (Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach) presented at the ISF meetings here in Charlottesville. They look to see if in the FOMC minutes, international economic issues are mentioned in a way that, when converted to an index, shows up as statistically significant in a Taylor equation, and provide the answer “yes”.
Two Data Sets and Some Papers
For use in ISF 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International Dimensions”.
Term Spreads for Country Groupings
US, Rest-of-Advanced, Emerging Markets, follow up on individual countries’ term spreads in yesterday’s post.
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
Are Imports a Leading or Contemporaneous Indicator of Recession?
Answer: Yes, and (to a lesser extent) Yes.
The Dollar’s Role: Prospects
From D. Fried, CBO Working Paper (summary):