When consumer sentiment drops as precipitously as it has (see here), then one has to ask if a recession is in the offing in this month. Here’s I’m using the U Michigan consumer sentiment index to determine if we’re in a recession now (i.e., not forecasting).
That’s the title of an August 21,2024 article by Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni in the Boston Herald. Here’s an update of my August 28 post:
Remember when GDP contracted under Biden but Dems said that wasn’t a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president? ATL Fed’s GDP nowcast for Q1 just plunged from 2.3% to -1.5% as everyone begins to realize our “growth” has just been debt-fueled gov’t spending
From 1/21/2025 to 3/10/2025, the 2 year constant maturity yield fell by 40 bps. Continue reading
CES based employment indicators (NFP, private NFP, hourly wages, hours) essentially at consensus. Here’s the roundup of key NBER indicators (of which employment and personal income ex-transfers are central).
Ballpark adjustment to GDPNow:
Despite the lack of coincident indicators suggesting a recession’s onset (we’ll see more on Friday), there are plenty of articles now suggesting an imminent recession: “Wall Street Banks Say Markets Are Flashing Rising Recession Risk”, “The Recession Trade Is Back on Wall Street”, “Whisper it and it’s back: Recession risk creeps onto markets’ radar”, “2025 Recession Risk Is Increasing According To Multiple Indicators”. Kalshi’s recession probability for 2025 is now at 42%, after languishing at around 22% for a month. Assuming no recession as of February, what does a conventional term spread (10yr-3mo) model for 12 months ahead indicate?
From Kalshi, 10am CT:
While VIX is elevated:
From betting markets, economists:
