From a February 1st post:
Category Archives: recession
Recession Indicator Sit-Rep
NBER BCDC key indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators:
Weekly Business Cycle Indicators – Data through 7/27
Three Episodes of the Sahm Rule Triggered
Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions.
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP
Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.
Can One Have a Recession Start When Real Household Wealth Is Rising?
Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income.”
Vote Trump for Lower GDP, Higher Unemployment
From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s post “Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates”.
GDP Forecast: CBO above WSJ
WSJ July forecast relative to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday:
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-July 2024
Industrial production at +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus).