From the Lewis, Mertens, Stock NY Fed WEI, and the Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Economic Conditions Index:
Category Archives: recession
Three Episodes of the Sahm Rule Triggered
Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions.
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP
Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.
Can One Have a Recession Start When Real Household Wealth Is Rising?
Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income.”
Vote Trump for Lower GDP, Higher Unemployment
From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s post “Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates”.
GDP Forecast: CBO above WSJ
WSJ July forecast relative to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday:
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-July 2024
Industrial production at +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus).
Recession Probabilities for June 2025
Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model.
An Alternative Civilian Employment Measure
Several observers have pointed out the gap between civilian employment as measured by the CPS, and the nonfarm payroll employment numbers obtained from the CES. The CPS measure includes new population controls, which depend on the estimated immigration. CBO estimates a lot more net immigration than Census, which when applied to employment might alter our views of employment.