NFP at +206K vs +191K.
Category Archives: recession
Consensus vs Actual – Real Time Sahm Rule for June [updated]
Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):
Opinion: “An (Almost) Inverted Yield Curve Is Worrying China”
S. Ren in Bloomberg: “It’s getting flatter, prompting worries over an ‘asset famine’ and a prolonged recession.”
June CBO Economic Outlook: Positive Output Gap through 2025
The CBO released an updated Economic Outlook yesterday. Projected PCE inflation is higher, as are budget deficits. First drop in Fed funds rate in 2025Q1. For me, most interesting are the GDP projections, including with respect to potential GDP.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June
Industrial production surprises on upside (0.9% vs. 0.3% m/m), while nominal retail sales increase modestly (0.1 actual vs. 0.3% consensus).
FT-Booth School and FOMC GDP Forecasts
The survey indicates 2.0% median growth q4/q4, not far from June SEP at 2.1% (unchanged from March).
On the Recession Indicator Watch: Retail Sales
Out of curiosity, I peruse the web to see who is still saying a recession is coming (with an open mind). This tweet suggests retail sales are the indicator de jour:
“Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?”
Yes! From Rashed Ahmed and Menzie Chinn, just published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
“Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here”
That’s the title of a Timiraos/WSJ article three days ago:
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-May
Consumption, personal income ex-transfers, and (for March) manufacturing and trade industry sales.