From a paper by Michele Andreolli, Natalie S. Rickard, and Paolo Surico (presented at NBER Summer Institute Monetary Economics sessions):
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators – NBER and Alternative – Mid-July 2024
With the Fed’s industrial production release (-0.6% m/m vs. -0.3% consensus) and retail sales (+1.0% m/m vs. +0.4% consensus), we have the following pictures, the first of the indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
Oxford Economics: Recession at 3 & 6 Months Horizons
If you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around…
Already in Recession?
Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper:
August Survey of Professional Forecasters: GDP
Continued growth:
High Frequency Recession Indicators
Lewis/Mertens/Stock and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly indicators, and Torsten Slok’s rundown.
Hovde Predicts Recession
As of Wednesday (via WisPolitics):
Revisiting the Recession Call of 2022H1
Now that we’re talking recession (again), it seems like a good idea to remind ourselves of the last time some observers declared unequivocally that we were in recession, to wit, Steven Kopits, January 2, 2023:
Recession Predictions from Six Months Ago
From a February 1st post:
Recession Indicator Sit-Rep
NBER BCDC key indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators: