That’s the title of a panel discussion at AEI with With Steven B. Kamin moderating, and Jason Furman, Julia Coronado, Nathan Sheets and Desmond Lachman participating.
Category Archives: recession
GDP Trajectory: The View from Wall Street
The mean forecast trajectory keeps on rising as actual GDP outcomes keep on surprising on the upside (Q4 mean growth rose from 0.9% to 1.7% q/q AR since October), but forecasts are pretty dispersed, as shown in Figure 1.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-January
Industrial production and manufacturing production both beat Bloomberg consensus (+0.1% vs 0%). Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow (latter up today to 2.4% vs. 2.2% SAAR on 1/10).
Are We in Recession? The Sahm Rule Now & 2007
Here’s 2007-08:
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP growth surprises on the upside (see discussion here), but combined with downward revisions in October and November, we’re just at about the consensus level. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Still Waiting for the Recession, Weekly Data through 12/30
Through the year’s end, Year-on-Year growth is accelerating modestly, according to the WEI.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of 2024
November monthly GDP is reported by S&P Global Market Insights, up 0.2 ppts, 2.6% annualized. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Foreign Term Spread Augmented Recession Model Prediction
Ahmed and Chinn (2023), coauthored with Rashad Ahmed, accepted at JMCB. The US and Foreign 10yr-3mo inversion remain deep (although not as deep as in March when last I posted).
Why I Don’t Cheer the Soft Landing (Yet)
In early 2001 (April or May) I was on staff at CEA, and recall a conversation where I was assured there’d be no recession, given the latest data available. So, with all the data I’ve recapped, remember, the data will be revised (and GDP in particular will be revised, over and over again).
Income, Consumption, Manufacturing and Trade Industry Sales and the Measured Business Cycle
Income and consumption m/m growth at consensus. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.