GDPNow and NY Fed nowcasts as of today:
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators at January’s End
On the back of yesterday’s GDP release (discussed by Jim), real personal consumption continues to rise, beating consensus (+0.5% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), while nominal personal income hits consensus at +0.3%. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
“Soft Landing, Hard Landing, or Financial Crisis?”
That’s the title of a panel discussion at AEI with With Steven B. Kamin moderating, and Jason Furman, Julia Coronado, Nathan Sheets and Desmond Lachman participating.
GDP Trajectory: The View from Wall Street
The mean forecast trajectory keeps on rising as actual GDP outcomes keep on surprising on the upside (Q4 mean growth rose from 0.9% to 1.7% q/q AR since October), but forecasts are pretty dispersed, as shown in Figure 1.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-January
Industrial production and manufacturing production both beat Bloomberg consensus (+0.1% vs 0%). Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow (latter up today to 2.4% vs. 2.2% SAAR on 1/10).
Are We in Recession? The Sahm Rule Now & 2007
Here’s 2007-08:
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP growth surprises on the upside (see discussion here), but combined with downward revisions in October and November, we’re just at about the consensus level. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Still Waiting for the Recession, Weekly Data through 12/30
Through the year’s end, Year-on-Year growth is accelerating modestly, according to the WEI.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of 2024
November monthly GDP is reported by S&P Global Market Insights, up 0.2 ppts, 2.6% annualized. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Foreign Term Spread Augmented Recession Model Prediction
Ahmed and Chinn (2023), coauthored with Rashad Ahmed, accepted at JMCB. The US and Foreign 10yr-3mo inversion remain deep (although not as deep as in March when last I posted).