As of mid-December, it’s hard to see the recession (even with this morning’s downward revision of GDP growth to 4.9%) so there’s a lot of triumphalism about how the oft-predicted recession of 2023. We only have monthly data through November at best, so perhaps it’s still a little premature to declare victory for 2023 — but only a little. For 2024, these concurrent indicators are of little help.
Category Archives: recession
CBO on the Economic Outlook: No Downturn, Higher Rates
From CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2023 to 2025:
Compared with its February 2023 projections, CBO’s current projections exhibit weaker growth, lower unemployment, and higher interest rates in 2024 and 2025.2 The agency’s current projections of inflation are mixed relative to those made in February 2023.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-December
Industrial production under consensus (+0.2% [corrected 12/16] m/m vs +0.3% Bloomberg consensus). Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Business Cycle Indicators with November Employment
With nonfarm payroll employment in November released (+199K vs. +180K consensus), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (plus monthly GDP). The employment series below incorporates the preliminary benchmark revision.
FT-IGM (Booth School) US Macroeconomists Survey on the Outlook
Survey results are out, for responses as of 12/4. FT article here.
Business Cycle Indicators including Monthly GDP
Monthly GDP, as estimated by SPGMI (formerly IHS Markit/Macroeconomic Advisers) drops 0.5% m/m (-6.3% annualized!)
Soft Landing?
I’ve wondered about what a “soft landing” entails, and whether we are are headed toward one (see discussion of diverging forecasts, in current issue of the Economist) This is despite findings that, based on historical correlations, just about any term spread based regression will predict a recession by around mid-2024.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-November
Industrial production is out, -0.6% m/m vs. consensus -0.3%. Here’s the picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, along with SPGMI’s (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
Growth Nowcasts for Q4
Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and St. Louis Fed are for 2.1%, 2.51%, and 1.9%, SAAR respectively.
Euro Area Treading Water
EuroCoin in October indicates quarterly growth rate of -0.67 (q/q). The Q3 flash estimate for Euro Area GDP was -0.1%.