New Deal Democrat suggests normalizing on 2023M01 instead of to 2022M11. Here’re the NBER BCDC indicators, plus monthly GDP, as well as a slew of others, since then.
Category Archives: recession
The Reliability of Employment Measures from CES
Alternate measures of conceptually similar to NFP and private NFP continue to rise.
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s Start: Where’s the Recession?
Nonfarm payroll employment growth far exceeded consensus, at 339K vs 180K. With April’s monthly GDP from SPGMI, we have the following picture of indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (along with monthly GDP):
“Fiscal Recovery Act of 2023”: Macro Impact, Micro Evidence
Aggregate Demand vs. Income: Sometimes an Important Distinction
Going back to intro macro, remember when we quickly impose the equilibrium condition Y=AD? What does it mean that Y doesn’t equal AD? Here’s a quick reminder.
Conflicting Signals for Coincident Macro Indicators at End-May
Monthly indicators of employment, consumption, personal income (ex-transfers) are all rising in April. But GDO and GDP+ show a decline for 2022Q4 and 2023Q1.
Negative GDP Growth Is Delayed Again
In the Survey of Professional Forecasters median, but some still see it as likely). Here’s an interesting picture from the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters and GDPNow.
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-May
With the industrial production release showing an upside surprise (0.5% m/m vs -0.1 consensus) due to an outsized manufacturing increase (1% vs. 0.1% consensus), this is the picture of the series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC), plus monthly GDP from S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) formerly Macroeconomic Advisers.
Term Spreads and Breakevens
As of today:
Business Cycle Indicators, Incorporating the Employment Release
With the employment release, showing a deceleration in employment growth despite the upside surprise in April’s number, this is the picture of the series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC), plus monthly GDP from S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) formerly Macroeconomic Advisers.