Here’re some indicators at the weeky frequency for the real economy. Bloomberg notes that GDPNow (3/16) combined with SEP median of 0.4% growth rate for 2023 implies 3 quarters of negative GDP growth starting in Q2. The latest data below relate to late in Q1.
Category Archives: recession
Recession Chances: Fed Pause vs. Banking Shock
Goldman Sachs raised the probability of recession from 25% to 35% in light of the SVB related turmoil (although their guess is still lower than the consensus). This prompted me to wonder what was the net effect of the turmoil and Fed response (less tightening) on economic activity.
Weekly Macro Indicators and Nowcasts on the Eve of SVB
Deceleration was still in place, according to the WEI.
Back in the Real Economy: Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March
With industrial production for February (0% m/m vs +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus S&P Market Intelligence monthly GDP.
Spreads and Uncertainty/Risk Measures Post-SVB, Post-CPI Release
Five year Treasury-TIPS breakeven rises. EPU up on 13th, VIX down (but still elevated) today. 10yr-3mo spread remains very negative.
The Term Spread and Recession, Across Countries
World of Government Bonds has this interesting page which notes all the inverted yield curves. Shown below are those for S&P ratings of A to AAA as of today.
Looking Backward to the “Recession of 2022H1” and Forward to the Recession of 2023
Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions? You should’ve stopped after looking at this Econbrowser post from January 4th, but I thought an update to most recent data would be of interest as we obtain December data. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus heavy truck sales (suggested by Calculated Risk at some points), and the eponymous Sahm Rule (real time version).
Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release
NFP employment increase of 311K beat the Bloomberg consensus of 205K. This number confirms the continued strength in the economy overall, at least according to the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC plus S&P Global (nee IHS Markit) monthly GDP.
Econ 702 Exercise – The Neoclassical Model: GDP and Shocks
Consider the following model (from Garin, Lester and Sims):
Recession 6 Months Away?
Following up on the proposition that the recession is seemingly always six months away (as noted in WSJ’s ‘Godot’ recession”), I thought it would be interesting to see if the market had been saying a similar thing. To wit, here’s the one year-6 month Treasury spread.