That’s what Ed Leamer noted back in 2007. Residential construction employment, spending, housing starts, new home sales, all normalized to 2021M11.
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators as of March 1st
S&P Global (formerly Macroeconomic Advisers) released monthly GDP for January today, indicating a rebound in activity – 0.3% m/m growth. Adding this to a graph of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC yields the following:
Business Cycle Indicators – Spending, Income, Sales
Nominal consumption above consensus (1.8% m/m vs. 1.3%). Personal income was 0.6% m/m, vs. consensus 1%. The NBER BCDC looks at real consumption and real income ex-current transers for conjunctural analysis. These are plotted below, along with with real manufacturing and trade industry sales.
Do Declining Imports Signal an Imminent Recession?
Maybe. Maybe not. Some reasons to wonder.
Guest Contribution: “Are Google data really useful for macroeconomic nowcasting?”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Director of the International Institute of Forecasters).
CBO Economic Outlook: GDP, Treasury Yields, and Recession Indicators
The CBO released its Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023-33 yesterday. The projection, based on data available as of January 6, shows a shallow decline in GDP in 2023Q1 and 2023Q2.
Forecasters Up Projections of GDP, Employment
The Survey of Professional Forecasters February survey was released on Friday. The median outlook has improved considerably since early January.
Dispersion in Q1 Nowcasts
Here are several nowcasts of 2023Q1 GDP, placed against the January WSJ mean forecast and IMF WEO projection of 31 January.
Remembering (or Not) the Recession of 2022H1
Compiling a bunch of labor market data, we have the following picture of the private nonfarm labor sector, which seems to run counter to the argument last made a month ago that a recession occurred in 2022H1.
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
With the release of the January 2023 Employment Situation release incorporating benchmark revisions we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit/SP Global monthly GDP (released on Wednesday):