With increasing term spreads (or, steepening of the yield curve), fears of imminent recession have waned. Does this make sense?
Category Archives: recession
Guest Contribution: “A non-Gaussian macro world”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris), and Director, International Institute of Forecasting.
Guest Contribution: “Yet Another Look at the Recent Inversion of the Yield Curve”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Kim Kowalewski, formerly Senior Adviser in the Macroeconomic Analysis Division of the Congressional Budget Office.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-November
With industrial production continuing its dive in October, we have a mixed picture of economic activity.
Why Is the 2019 Slowdown Different than the 2016 Slowdown?
Consider the rest-of-the-world… Who’s going to pick up the slack this time?
“More Signs of Contraction – When Will the GDP Turn Negative?”
From Cass Freight Index Report – September 2019:
With the -3.4% drop in September, following the -3.0% drop in August, -5.9% drop in July, -5.3% drop in June, and the -6.0% drop in May, we repeat our message from the previous four months: the shipments index has gone from “warning of a potential slowdown” to “signaling an economic contraction.”
Is World Trade Volume a Leading Indicator?
The slowdown could be coming from tariffs, or from decelerating economic growth. You decide…
“Probability of the U.S. or World Entering a Recession in 2020”
I wanted to go to this Society of Government Economists (SGE) event, with Prof. Tara Sinclair (GWU) and Chad Stone (CPBB), but I’m in the Midwest… Fortunately, they shared their thoughts with me.
Meanwhile, in the Macroeconomy
Business cycle indicators mixed, nowcasts overall sideways, manufacturing down.
Guest Contribution: “Identifying the German business cycle”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris), and Director, International Institute of Forecasting.